The Soviet violations put us in a particularly vulnerable and dangerous
position when these violations are compared with the sharp reductions in our
requests for Strategic Defense funding. We all feel
[Page 279]
that it is essential to move as rapidly and
effectively as possible on SDI because
Soviet violations do give them an advantage which makes it very difficult
for us to maintain a deterrence balance with them.
Of course, their violations also constitute a powerful argument for getting
the deepest possible cuts in nuclear arms by agreement, if we can secure
agreements that bring us to parity at these lower levels and are thoroughly
verifiable. Also, as we approach budget time for next year we may want to
consider a supplemental for this year of more than 3 percent growth next
year to compensate in specific ways for these violations. We will present to
you on your return from Geneva a range of options for appropriate responses.
I will be glad to take up with you the responses we can make within various
classified programs.
In Geneva, you will almost certainly come under great pressure to do three
things that would limit severely your options for responding to Soviet
violations:
Any or all of these Soviet proposals, if agreed to, would sharply restrict
the range of responses to past and current Soviet violations available to
us. A pledge to continue to adhere to SALT
II, even though the Soviets are violating it, could make it difficult, if
not impossible, to do other things we should do to make up for their
violations. We can, of course, continue to observe parts of SALT II, at your option, but a pledge to
continue observing it all, could put rigid constraints on your ability to
respond to Soviet violations.
Also, such a pledge would require us to dismantle far larger numbers of
modern weapons than the Soviets over the near-term. (See pages 1–4 of the
attached Annex A.5 This annex indicates the dramatic disparity between our
respective dismantling requirements. Essentially, the U.S. would have to dismantle between 1320 and
2240 MIRVed ballistic missile warheads by 1991, whereas the Soviets would
have to dismantle only
[Page 280]
about 558
ballistic missiles, of which just 112 would be MIRV systems. Because Soviet modernization processes can go on,
the net effect would be thousands of additional USSR warheads by the early 1990s.)
Communique or other language that enables the Soviets to appear equally
committed to full compliance—even as they continue to enlarge their pattern
of violations—will make the difficult task of responding to those violations
even more problematic.
Geneva offers the opportunity to underline the importance we attach to strict
compliance with arms control agreements previously made. And it will help to
build the foundation on which any proportionate response must be based.
My report to you emphasizes that our failure over the years to respond
promptly to Soviet violations can only encourage them to commit more—and
more significant—violations. It is significant that you are the first President to report to Congress violations by
the USSR that have continued for 20 years.
The verification the Soviets have agreed to in the past is no substitute for
actual compliance. This simply emphasizes that determined action to avoid a
double standard, in which we comply and the Soviets do not, is as necessary
as it is difficult.
Attachment
Memorandum From Secretary of Defense Weinberger to President Reagan6
Washington, November 13, 1985
SUBJECT
- Responding to Soviet Violations Policy (RSVP) Study
This memorandum responds to the several issues on which you requested
comment in National Security Decision Directive 173. It is an executive
summary to which is attached the full report. As I mentioned
[Page 281]
in my cover letter to you of
today, I will be glad to discuss with you some specific things we might
do to respond to these violations. The most important thing we can do is
press for full funding for SDI in the
Congress. The report is an analysis of the pattern and significance of
Soviet violations, the prospects for reversing them in Geneva, and some
lessons of the past and for the future.
First, if I might be permitted, a preliminary word about history, Soviet
violations, and what they mean to us. The full report makes clear that
the Soviet Union has been violating with impunity its principal arms
control agreements with the United States. From the beginning, many felt
that the Soviets used the arms control process to obscure their planned
offensive buildup, weaving into the fabric of the SALT I and ABM Treaty the loopholes and ambiguities that they would
later rely on to becloud or extenuate their violations. That pattern of
Soviet behavior continues to this day.
LESSONS
The lessons that I believe emerge from our analysis are as follows:
First, our original assumptions that the Soviets would not violate
agreements, because the political repercussions would not be worth any
possible gain, have been proved false. The Soviets have, in many cases,
violated treaty provisions for small, even marginal gains. The
deployment of several dozen SS–16 missiles at a test facility is a case
in point. So is the insignificant number by which the Soviets have
exceeded the SALT II ceiling on
strategic nuclear delivery vehicles and the protracted delays in
dismantling systems as required by the Treaty.
Second, there will always be very strong pressures to ignore violations
rather than abandon treaties—or even to respond proportionally, and the
Soviets know this.
Third, a failure to respond immediately to small infractions often
encourages larger ones.
Fourth, verification is not a substitute for compliance. It is vital to
know what the Soviets are doing and to be able to judge when violations
take place. But verification does not guarantee compliance. Some of the
most troubling violations are also the most easily verified. The
Krasnoyarsk radar and the SS–25 are examples of violations that the
Soviets must have known we would detect.
Fifth, the Standing Consultative Commission, the body assigned to deal
with violations, has failed to gain Soviet compliance and will continue
to do so. Indeed, it has, I think, generally discouraged more effective
measures to gain Soviet compliance by pushing compliance issues into the
recesses of a languid, confidential and ineffective forum.
[Page 282]
Sixth, as we attempt to negotiate deep reductions in offensive forces the
advantages to be gained by cheating will become proportionally
greater.
Seventh, it is essential to recognize that the Soviets will exploit
loopholes and ambiguities and that their presence in even carefully
drafted agreements is unavoidable. This is because the Soviets resist
precision and we have a history of acquiescing when they do so.
Eighth, it is easier to fall into a double standard of compliance than to
avoid it. Without fear of contradiction at home the Soviets are able to
deny violations. We are not. As a democracy we are rightly unwilling
(and unable) surreptitiously to violate agreements. Even the decision to
make a response proportional to Soviet violations requires great
political courage, particularly if violations are not challenged early.
Indeed, you are the first President to decide to do so and you can
expect considerable controversy over any specific proportional response
that you choose to make.
Ninth, violations can only be deterred by responding to them in ways that
are more costly to the Soviets than the gains they expect to achieve
through cheating. Establishing that we will respond, that we will impose
costs at least equal to the benefits of Soviet violations, has been made
more difficult by years of indifference and Congressional preoccupation
with defense cuts. None of this is to say we should not try urgently and
patiently to get the arms reductions agreements you and others want. It
is to say there are many problems ahead.
SOVIET VIOLATIONS IN PERSPECTIVE
Following is a more detailed summary of the report itself, which, while
long, is so because it traces the history of our arms negotiations
relationships with the Soviets, and it does provide, I believe, useful
background for any new set of negotiations. I hope you will not consider
it too negative, or too lacking in hope. I have great hopes myself,
based on my certain knowledge of how much you want agreements that will
reduce arms.
Your Veteran’s Day address at Arlington7 was a most eloquent statement of why
we must continue to try to secure agreements for real and deep
reductions that preserve our ability to maintain deterrence at much
lower levels, and leave us free to pursue your better way to peace—the
SDI—and, above all, agreements that
are truly verifiable.
[Page 283]
This is a noble quest and you are rightfully pursuing it with my total
support. But it is essential, I believe, that we all be aware of how
many pitfalls there are, based on the history of Soviet past behavior.
We have called attention to their behavior, trying (with only moderate
success) to stimulate interest and understanding on the part of
Congress, the American people, and the allies, and urging (with no
success) the Soviet government to cease and desist.
In our current negotiations with the Soviets, we have worked to devise
positions that take account of the verification and compliance problems
we have faced in connection with existing treaties. But these steps,
however sensible, cannot impose a substantial cost on the Soviet Union
for its violations; even more important, they have not negated the
special military advantages the Soviets have created for themselves
through their violations.
A failure on the part of the United States to respond strongly to the
Soviet Union’s policy of treaty violation would damage our interests in
various ways. It would signal the kind of uncertainty and political
weakness that invites adversaries to put one further to the test, and it
could be taken as recantation of our findings of violation, thereby
undermining our credibility. A more tangible ill effect would be the
consolidation of the military gains the violations have afforded the
Soviet Union in fields such as offensive strategic weaponry, strategic
defense, and biological warfare.
Moreover, a less than forceful response to the violations would undermine
any serious diplomatic endeavor to improve the U.S.- USSR relationship, in the arms control
and other arenas.
It may appear paradoxical that the key to improved U.S.- Soviet relations
is a vigorous response by us to Soviet treaty violations. But it is no
more so than the observation that the key to domestic peace is a police
force ready to exert itself to preserve the law.
THE PAST AS PRELUDE
History has repeatedly demonstrated that violations of international
obligations feed on themselves; the violator tests and judges the
reaction to each violation before moving on to the next. This was
certainly the experience of the Allied Powers in the period between the
wars as Hitler probed to its abject limit the unwillingness of France
and Britain to respond to a widening pattern of German treaty
violations.
Thus was massive German rearmament permitted to take place, on the land,
at sea and in the air, in violation of legally binding treaties. From
small German violations great battleships grew.
The failure of the democracies in the 1930s had little to do with the
verification of illegal Nazi rearmament. The transformations of
[Page 284]
Boy Scout troops and police
precinct units into Wehrmacht divisions, or the conversion of flying
clubs into Luftwaffe squadrons, were not deceptions put over on an
unsuspecting allied intelligence establishment. They were, on the
contrary, clever devices to give those bent on appeasing the Nazis a
pretext for inaction.
To those, like Churchill, who saw the consequences of acquiescing in
German rearmament, the evidence was clear enough. But for those who were
not prepared to act because action required sacrifice and large defense
expenditures, always unpopular in democracies, there was ample scope for
inconclusive debate over the interpretation of law and intelligence.
And so there is today. Failure to object or respond to violations will
invite further violations, many of which are already foreshadowed by
national intelligence estimates.
THE PATTERN OF SOVIET VIOLATIONS AND
U.S. RESPONSES
The failure of the Johnson,8 Nixon, Ford and Carter Administrations to respond
seriously to the many Soviet violations that took place during their
tenures led to the situation you confronted when, in 1984, you became
the first President in five Administrations to find the Soviets in
violation of a number of important provisions of several arms control
agreements, many of which had gone on for years before you called
attention to them.
The United States might not be faced with the Krasnoyarsk radar today if,
more than a decade ago, we had effectively protested the construction,
also illegal under the ABM Treaty, of a
Soviet radar at Kamchatka. Although the two violations are quite
different in nature (Kamchatka was not nearly so serious militarily), it
is likely that the ease with which the U.S. Government acquiesced in the
Kamchatka violation in 1975 emboldened the Soviets to approve the
Krasnoyarsk project probably in 1977 or 1978.
In concluding and implementing treaties with friends and allies we assume
good faith. Our friends and allies rarely craft loopholes, ambiguities,
or definitional imprecision as devices to distort the plain intent of
the parties and recapture concessions apparently made by them during the
negotiating process. Disputes, when they do arise, are
[Page 285]
generally settled by negotiation in which
the original intent of the parties is a crucial factor in the
resolution.
In dealing with the Soviets, however, our experience has been quite
different. In SALT I and II and the
ABM Treaty, the Soviets insisted on
formulations calculated to excuse subsequent actions of precisely the
sort the agreements were understood to curtail. And since the agreements
were signed, the Soviets have made prodigious use of the loopholes and
ambiguities they argued for.
None of this is to say that it will never be possible to get a good arms
reduction agreement with the Soviets that is in our interest. Indeed, I
think you are in a better position to do this than any previous American
president because we are strong and the Soviets
know you are perfectly able and willing to work for good agreements and
not be pressured into bad ones.
EXPLOITING LOOPHOLES AND
AMBIGUITIES
The most important example of Soviet exploitation of loopholes, drawn
from SALT I, has to do with the
deployment of the SS–19, a large, MIRVed Soviet ICBM. Central to the SALT I agreement was a prohibition on the
conversion of launchers for light missiles into launchers for heavy
missiles. The Soviets successfully resisted U.S. efforts to nail down the definition of the terms
“light” and “heavy,” claiming that the distinction was “obvious to
everyone.” Because there then existed one missile, the SS–9, vastly
larger than any other deployed on either side, the Soviets encouraged
the view that since both sides understood the SS–9 to be “heavy” and the
several smaller missiles then deployed to be “light,” there would be no
problem of distinguishing the two types during the period of the Interim
Agreement.
While this issue was under discussion the Soviets delayed (in order to
conceal it from the U.S.) the flight
test and silo construction program of a new ICBM. Once the agreement was signed, the Soviets launched
the first test flights of the SS–19, which turned out to have three
times the destructive potential (throw weight) of either side’s largest
“light” missile. It was as if one party to an agreement limiting the
sides to specified numbers of feathers and bricks secretly piled up
stones and then argued that because stones are not bricks they must be
counted as feathers. We now know that the aura of good faith with which
the Soviets enveloped the American negotiators was intended to allay the
sort of skepticism that might have led us to insist on precise
definitions of such terms as “light” and “heavy.”
In building a loophole large enough for the SS–19, the Soviets calculated
that the U.S. would eventually acquiesce
in a fait accompli. They could not have
anticipated how scant a protest we would make or how readily the Nixon
Administration would plead the Soviet case in order to contain the
complaints of Senators who had been told in hearings
[Page 286]
that the United States would regard as
“heavy” any missile larger than the “light” missiles deployed when the
agreement was signed.
Looking back on the deployment of the SS–19 in 1975, it would be hard to
fault the Soviets for concluding that the United States would accept
without effective protest any Soviet action that could be excused,
however disingenuously, by invoking a convenient loophole or ambiguity.
And if one can call a rock a feather and get away with it, why not say
an early warning radar with a substantial ABM potential is a radar for space tracking and build it at
Krasnoyarsk? Such has been the evolution of Soviet non-compliance.9
VIOLATIONS THAT EXPLOIT U.S. INTELLIGENCE LIMITATIONS
In 1985, the Soviet Union commenced deployment of the mobile SS–25 and
thereby violated a provision of the SALT II Treaty limiting each side to the deployment of only
one new type of ICBM.10 [3 lines not declassified]
The SS–25 is a new type of ICBM in
every respect, including measurable characteristics by which the Treaty
defines new types. Particularly troubling is the technical argument by
which the Soviets sought to justify the SS–25 since it is likely to be
applied to additional new types of ICBMs identified by U.S. intelligence but not yet flight
tested. For this reason, a failure to respond effectively to this
violation will almost certainly invite additional violations in the
future.
In 1979, proponents of the SALT II
Treaty stressed the importance of the new-type limit on modernization.
They argued that, with the Treaty, the Soviets would be limited to one
new type of ICBM while, without a
Treaty, several were expected. A third possibility—that the Soviets
would sign the Treaty, violate it and wind up with several new types
nonetheless—never figured in the ratification debate, although there was
a good deal of discussion about whether the new-type limitation was
verifiable.
The evolution of the one-new-type limitation in the SALT II negotiations is instructive. The
United States proposed banning all new types of ICBMs. The Soviets
insisted that one be permitted and that provision be made for the
modification of older types. We conceded both points. There followed a
lengthy negotiation aimed at defining the sort of modification that
would be allowed for older types of ICBMs.
[Page 287]
The constraints finally agreed to under Soviet pressure were narrowly
defined. All along, our intent for the one-new-type limit and the
associated rules covering allowable modification was to restrict
severely the Soviet freedom to bring out a new missile in the guise of
modifying an old one. In the end, the Soviets twisted the Treaty’s
intent and then violated it so as to permit the development of at least
two new types. What had begun as a cul de sac
ended up a superhighway leading to the development of a whole generation
of new and substantially more capable intercontinental ballistic
missiles.
VIOLATIONS EXACERBATING U.S. INTELLIGENCE LIMITATIONS
We think U.S. efforts to obtain a Soviet
pledge to refrain from the encryption of test data telemetry almost
certainly alerted Moscow to the importance of telemetry as a source of
intelligence about Soviet military programs. [4 lines
not declassified]
[1 paragraph (8 lines) not declassified]
During the SALT II ratification debate,
the Senate was particularly forceful in asserting the importance it
attached to Soviet compliance with the limitations on telemetry
encryption. The report of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the
Treaty included the following statement:
. . . Any practice with regard to the transmission of telemetric
information during the testing of strategic arms limited by the
Treaty, including but not limited to the failure to transmit
relevant telemetric information, which results in impeding of
verification by United States national technical means of any
provision of the Treaty, will be raised by the United States in the
Standing Consultative Commission and if the issue is not resolved to
the satisfaction of the United States, the United States reserves
the right to exercise all other available remedies, including, but
not limited to, the right to withdraw from the Treaty.
The Administration and Congress alike understood that a violation of the
encryption provision would have profound consequences for U.S. intelligence and could undermine the
many Treaty provisions whose verification depended on access to Soviet
test data. Here again we are faced with a violation which, unless
reversed, is certain to diminish still further our ability to monitor
Soviet activities and to verify their compliance with Treaty
obligations.
KRASNOYARSK AND TERRITORIAL
DEFENSE
Of the many violations of the USSR’s
arms control obligations, the most serious includes, but is not limited
to, the large Soviet phased-array radar under construction near
Krasnoyarsk. For associated with that radar is a variety of other
violations, some of the spirit or intent, others of the letter, of the
complex constraints in the ABM Treaty
aimed
[Page 288]
at preventing the
deployment of a territorial defense involving a nation-wide
anti-ballistic missile system.
While the evidence is not conclusive, there is good reason to be alarmed
at the combination of Soviet development of readily-transportable
radars, significant upgrading of the Moscow ABM system, the testing of air-defense components in an
ABM mode, the development (and
testing) of air-defense missiles capable of intercepting ballistic
missile warheads and the completion of a network of large phased-array
radars of which the radar at Krasnoyarsk is a part. Taken together,
these activities, some reaching back into the early and mid-1970s, could
indicate the beginning of Soviet territorial defense against ballistic
missiles.
The central restriction of the ABM
Treaty is the limit it places on the deployment of large phased-array
radars. Because they typically take five-to-seven years to build and are
the pacing element in an integrated defense system, these highly visible
large radars were severely constrained in the 1972 Treaty. Once
deployed, these radars form the essential infrastructure to which
interceptors and smaller radars might be added, expanding incrementally
the capacity of the system as a whole to detect, track and intercept
U.S. or allied warheads launched in
retaliation against Soviet targets.
That the Soviets are today poised for such a development is a consequence
of a pattern of violations, many of which must have been planned during
and in the period immediately following the ABM Treaty negotiations. It is likely that the Soviets will
continue further to refine the air defense components and transportable
radars necessary to make full use of the large phased-array radar base
that is now nearing completion—a base that greatly exceeds that planned
by the United States for deployment of the Safeguard ABM system abandoned in the aftermath of
the ABM Treaty.
THE STANDING CONSULTATIVE
COMMISSION
SALT I and II and the ABM Treaty all provided for a Standing
Consultative Commission (SCC) for the
drafting of technical implementing agreements and the resolution of
compliance issues. It consists of representatives of the U.S. and Soviet Union who negotiate on the
occasion of their meetings. Its deliberations are secret.
Contrary to the claims often made for it, the SCC has failed to resolve any significant compliance issue
in the approximately 1,500 days that it has been in session over the
last 13 years. A less productive forum for the resolution of disputes
would be difficult to find.
Far from resolving disputes over compliance, the SCC has become a diplomatic carpet under which Soviet
violations have been continuously swept, an Orwellian memory-hole into
which our concerns have
[Page 289]
been
dumped like yesterday’s trash. Unwilling to face up to a mounting record
of Soviet violations, successive administrations have consigned our
concerns to the SCC where they have
been “discussed,” often for years on end, with wholly unsatisfactory
results.
Violations raised by the U.S. in the
SCC were dealt with in slow motion
while they continued and until they had run their course, at which time
they were declared to have been resolved. A good case in point is the
Soviet program for testing air defense components in an “ABM mode” in
violation of the ABM Treaty. Well over
100 suspicious tests were conducted over twelve years while the SCC painted an attenuated arabesque that
served to obscure their continuation. When their tests were completed
the Soviets announced, and the United States gratefully received, the
news that they would cease. Even this dismal result proved ephemeral;
after a brief interval, the Soviets resumed the prohibited tests—and
back we went to the SCC.
Our Administration has been the first to acknowledge the ineffectiveness
of the SCC, and the first one willing
to report publicly Soviet violations.
There are those who believe that the inadequacies of the SCC can be overcome by a redoubled effort.
I believe this misses the essential point about the SCC. If the Soviets comply with
agreements, the issue of violations will not arise in the SCC or anywhere else. If they wish to
violate them, they will not be deterred by semi-annual meetings of the
SCC. The SCC is merely a forum for discussion, a date and place and
list of attendees. While, in theory, it could be used to dispel
misunderstandings, misunderstanding is not the source of Soviet
behavior; rather, Soviet behavior is motivated by a desire to gain
advantage and the SCC is powerless to
affect it.
A constituency has developed around the SCC composed, as is the SCC itself, of Soviets and Americans who believe that
violations of agreements must not be permitted to become prominent
features of the arms control dialogue. Only a clear declaration from the
President that the SCC has failed
offers any prospect that we will find the will and opportunity to make
the appropriate responses that will create incentives for Soviet
compliance and disincentives to Soviet violations.
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PATTERN OF
VIOLATIONS
The current and future Soviet violations pose real risks to our security
and to the process of arms control itself.
The Krasnoyarsk radar together with other indications suggesting a
possible future territorial defense could have a profound impact on our
strategic deterrent forces. Even a probable
territorial defense would require us to increase the number of our
offensive forces and their ability to penetrate Soviet defenses to
assure that our operational
[Page 290]
plans could be executed. The deployment in significant numbers of the
SS–25 (which is now well underway) will erode deterrence by allowing the
Soviets to contemplate a first-strike using their fixed ICBMs, while
retaining intact a reserve force of mobile systems resilient to
counter-attack. [4 lines not declassified]
These few examples are illustrative. For each of the violations that you
have reported to the Congress there are associated risks to our
security. When violations of the spirit of past agreements are added to
the list—the deployment of the SS–19, the conversion of ballistic
missile launching submarines to cruise missile launching submarines, and
the like—the cumulative impact on our security is deeply troubling.
We believe modernized strategic and conventional forces and vigorous
SDI research present the strongest
message to the Soviets in response to their treaty violations. Such
U.S. forces and research also
provide the best hedge against future Soviet threats. There are a number
of military programs which have been cancelled or reduced due to budget
constraints. These reductions could have a significant effect on our
deterrent capability. Thus, our priority response should be to implement
fully these programs. I will be prepared to discuss our options for
proportionate responses upon your return from Geneva.
I think it is still possible to obtain, by patient negotiation with the
Soviets, verifiable agreements that make sharp reductions, down to
parity, in the nuclear arsenals. Both powers’ strategic defense remains,
however, as the greatest single long-range hope of mankind.