288. Electronic Message From William Cockell of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs (Negroponte)1
SUBJECT
- C-W-P Breakfast 10/04/88: SDI
Carlucci brought this non-agenda subject up, noting that there will be a major play tomorrow on SDI, with a joint hearing on the program. The Democrats will use the hearing to attack SDI. The Administration has a good story to tell on cost reduction for the SBI, he felt. The costs have fallen from an estimated $52B to a new estimate of $18B. This is attributable to technical breakthroughs, better focal plane capabilities. In addition, we can now take some capabilities in the “garage” and put them on the vehicles themselves, so we don’t need as many garages or KKVs. As a consequence, SBI now looks much more feasible. Under the new approach, the year 2002 appears feasible for achievement of Full Operational Capability (FOC) for Phase I. (This is a slight “pushing out” of the previous schedule.) The 2002 date, of course, rests on many caveats and hedges. Carlucci said that he had decided not to testify himself, out of concern that that might appear too political. Bob Costello will be the lead witness, accompanied by Herres and Abrahamson. Frank has told Abe to hit hard the New York Times editorial theme that he is quitting because of program restructuring. Frank feels that we have a good story to tell now. DOD’s new report on SDI is quite convincing. He will [Page 1049] provide copies to the breakfast attendees. Kampelman said he senses a growing feeling on the Hill, among both Democrats and Republicans, that the program is becoming more achievable. Carlucci agreed. He feels it is becoming harder to argue against it. Whitehead said he had heard recently about the “Brilliant Pebbles” concept . . . “it sounds wonderful.” Kampelman added that there will be a briefing on the concept at State later today. Carlucci said the concept is appealing. We are not ready to go that way at this point, but the technology trend is in the direction of something like “Brilliant Pebbles” that allows you to put more and more of the IR capability in the interceptor. “If we get there, that will be a very significant breakthrough”. Returning to the subject of tomorrow’s hearings, Carlucci noted that the committees have stacked the deck with lots of hostile (to SDI) witnesses. The hearings will be in a large room and there’s no doubt the Democrats will attempt to politicize them. Whitehead felt that might backfire on the Democrats. Carlucci added that he had told his people to stay away from the treaty interpretation issue. If asked, they should say that’s an issue that future administrations will have to come to grips with. They are there as the officials responsible for program management, to present a technical briefing on technological progress and costs. Beyond that, they will say that there are no near-term testing plans that would require application of the broad interpretation.
- Source: National Archives, PROFS system, Reagan Administration, ID 83392. Secret. Copies were sent to Grant, Robert Dean, Linhard, Mandel, Fortier, Perina, Rodman, Schillaci, and Andrico. Sent through Stevens and Perito. No minutes of the meeting among Carlucci, Whitehead, and Powell were found.↩