177. Memorandum From the President’s Acting Assistant for National Security Affairs (Keel) to President Reagan1
SUBJECT
- December 17 SDI Briefing: Analysis of DOD Early Deployment Options
At tomorrow’s briefing, Secretary Weinberger will present an assessment that, if proper steps are taken now, the US could begin deployment of a two-layer defensive system in 1993. The Secretary will note that this system would not be capable of handling all threatening Soviet ballistic missiles. Rather, it would be a start towards that capability, and (in DOD’s opinion) would be able to disrupt an attack by ballistic missiles sufficiently to add to deterrence. Later in the 1990’s, the US could continue to add layers to the defense. In short, the system that we could start to deploy in 1993 would be the first step in a phased, incremental deployment of advanced defenses that would move us progressively closer to the ultimate level of effectiveness called for by your vision.
The Secretary’s briefing does not describe in any detail the system that he would begin deploying in 1993. We understand that it would have two layers and take three to four years to fully deploy.
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In order to protect this option, the Secretary will likely recommend the following actions:
1. Endorse the idea of planning for a phased, incremental deployment of advanced defenses—with the first deployed system providing less than the capability needed for achievement of your full vision, but still providing a significant contribution to enhanced deterrence. This concept is clearly the only way that we will be able to actually deploy advanced defenses, and its endorsement in general should pose no problem.
2. Endorse and protect the option of beginning deployment of an initial advanced defensive system as described above by 1993. This is a more difficult issue. It hinges on our degree of confidence of being able to implement this option, and the costs and benefits associated with it.
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- The most immediate issue may be funding. Although the estimates are preliminary, the overall cost of this initial two-layer system could be $40–50 billion through 1995. In addition, to protect the 1993 date, it may be required to add $300 million as a supplemental to the FY87 budget, and some additional $500 million to $1 billion to the SDI related elements in the FY88 budget.
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- A new, cost effective heavy-lift space launch booster will also be needed. The costs of this booster are included in the figures cited above, but to have the booster available to support this system, you would have to commit to such a project in the very near future.
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- To permit the research to move quickly enough, you would also have to permit the SDI program to be restructured to make full use of the legally correct (broad) interpretation of the ABM Treaty. The exact timing of when this would have to be done is not clear, but it would likely have to be within the next 2–3 years.
3. Endorse the immediate pursuit of a new, heavy-lift space booster.
4. Permit the SDI program to be restructured to make full use of the legally correct (broad) interpretation of the ABM Treaty.
Finally, you may wish to discuss the opportunity costs of seeking sharp increases in SDI funding for near term deployment. We will need to make such a move at some point, preferably during your term. But for the survival of the program, we need to be certain of winning the next major SDI debate. You may wish to emphasize that you would not wish a move now toward development and deployment to have a detrimental effect on the prospects for continuing the research and testing which are essential to your central SDI objective of establishing comprehensive defenses. In other words, we need to make the right move at the right time.
- Source: Reagan Library, Sven Kraemer Files, December 1986 Chron File. Secret; Sensitive. Sent for information. Printed from an uninitialed copy.↩