Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XLIV, Part 1, National Security Policy, 1985–1988

137. Information Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for Politico-Military Affairs (Holmes) to Secretary of State Shultz¹

Washington, October 3, 1986

SUBJECT

• Status of ICBM Modernization Process

On September 25, I attended a briefing on the status of ICBM modernization which was given by Donald Hicks, Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. Hicks previewed a briefing to be given at an upcoming meeting of the NSC.

DOD has now narrowed to four the basing options for an additional 50 MX. By November, Weinberger is to recommend a final MX basing mode as well as the configuration and basing mode for the small ICBM. It is my sense that DOD may recommend a delay in the decision-making on both systems based on insufficient data, even though the White House is unreceptive to such a delay.

Hicks reviewed the four MX options remaining under consideration:

— Superhardened silos [less than 1 line not declassified]

— [2 lines not declassified]

— [2 lines not declassified]

— [3 lines not declassified]

Hicks expressed his personal support of [less than 1 line not declassified] emphasizing that it would provide “enough” survivability. He also seems to support a mixed force of small ICBMs and MX. We understand that at least some of the Air Force leadership has been brought along to a view that if the MX is sellable only as a mobile, then perhaps [less than 1 line not declassified] is the best option available.

The consideration of these options so far seems to be centered on questions of technology, survivability and cost. It is not clear, for example, that DOD has thought about how they might be verified under a START agreement or how unattractive we would find similar modes of Soviet deployment. If arms control is going to reduce the size of US and Soviet strategic arsenals in verifiable ways, these considerations will need to be addressed before basing decisions are made. My staff is working on this issue, and I will get further thoughts to you as these basing concepts are further developed this fall.²

1. Source: Department of State, Executive Secretariat S/S Records, 1986 Nodis and Exdis Secretariat Memorandums, Lot 94D093, 1986 Nodis Memorandums, October 1–31, 1986 #1. Secret; Nodis. Drafted by Stogdale in PM; Cleared by Davis in PM. A stamped notation indicates Shultz saw the memorandum.
2. No minutes were found.