Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume XVII, Part 2, Sub-Saharan Africa

71. Interagency Intelligence Memorandum¹

NI IIM 80–10019

Washington, December 1980

Postcoup Prospects in Liberia

KEY JUDGMENTS

The United States enjoys valuable access rights and facilities in Liberia which probably cannot be duplicated elsewhere on the continent. In the eyes of the world, Liberia is inextricably linked to the United States, and its failures will be interpreted as American failures. As a result, the symbolic importance of Liberia to US interest may even transcend material considerations. If Liberia is disappointed with US assistance, it will turn elsewhere. This could allow nations unfriendly toward the United States to make significant inroads.

The coup last April left Liberia with a fragile political system and profound weaknesses in its institutions, leadership, and social structure.² Realization of these conditions, and fear that the most likely alternative to the Doe regime is unpredictable chaos, is probably the major cement holding the system together today. The regime depends on the support of the military, and therefore must satisfy the personal and professional demands of the ethnically disparate rank and file. Continued relative stability in Liberia depends on solving the near-term fiscal crisis to permit continued importation of petroleum products and foodstuffs. In the longer term, basic economic stability will depend on a return of foreign investor confidence. Foreign assistance will be crucial both in the short and in the long run.

Despite the grudging acceptance of the new regime by other African governments, Liberian leaders remain frightened of subversion supported from the outside. Efforts by Communist and radical African regimes to exploit the situation have so far generally been unsuccessful because of the Liberian Government’s continued attachment to America and its suspicion of Communist motivation.

Civilian rule will not return to Liberia until the economic situation improves to a point where civilians and military alike can count on some benefits from the system. This in turn depends upon the ability of a fragile administration to sustain progress and to resolve day-to-day crises in the fiscal and public security areas. Liberia is bound to the United States and its progress, or lack of it, will depend upon cooperation with the United States or replacement of the United States with some other outside benefactor.

[Omitted here is the body of the memorandum.]

1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, History Staff Files. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. A note at the end of the Key Judgments section reads: “This memorandum was prepared under the auspices of the National Intelligence Officer for Africa with contributions from the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Central Intelligence Agency. It has been coordinated with Intelligence Community representatives at the working level.” Research for the memorandum was completed December 22.
2. See Documents 55 and 56.