184. Article in the National Intelligence Daily1
BRIEFS AND COMMENTS
AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: Exile Front
The durability of the exile united front, formed over the weekend in time to participate in the Islamic Conference, will depend on Pakistan’s efforts to [Page 519] hold together the squabbling exile groups. [classification marking and handling restriction not declassified]
The Islamic Alliance for the Liberation of Afghanistan—composed of six exile groups including the four most important ones—was formed only after considerable prodding by the Pakistanis. At the Islamic Conference yesterday it was allowed to discuss the insurgents’ position and to appeal for financial support.2 The resolution adopted early today calling on Islamic states to withhold recognition of Afghanistan until Soviet troops withdraw declares that a three-nation committee will supervise aid for the “struggle” of Afghans. [classification marking and handling restriction not declassified]
Pakistani pressure may help to check infighting within the new organization. The exiles are reportedly on notice that further aid—including antitank and antiaircraft weapons—from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other sympathetic countries is contingent upon the survival of a unified exile organization. [classification marking and handling restriction not declassified]
With the exception of one or two groups that have a small guerrilla capability, the exile organizations do not command forces that have been active in the Afghan insurgency. The exiles have provided the various independent insurgent groups with modest amounts of arms and supplies and could become a more effective conduit if Pakistan should take charge of logistical arrangements. Disclosure of more direct Pakistani support of the Afghan insurgency, however, is certain to elicit a sharp reaction from Moscow. [1 line, classification marking, and handling restriction not declassified]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for DCI (1977–81), Box 8, Afghanistan Crisis—January 1980, NIDs. Top Secret; [codeword and handling restriction not declassified].↩
- The Conference of Islamic Foreign Ministers convened in Islamabad at Saudi and Pakistani request for an emergency session, January 27–29, to discuss the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. A news report on the meeting quoted General Zia: “An unequivocal message should go forth from this conference conveying to the Soviet Union the grave concern of the Islamic world at the presence of its troops in Afghanistan and calling upon that great power to reverse the course of its military intervention.” (William Mullen, “Soviets Warned of Breaking Ties with Moslem Nations,” Chicago Tribune, January 28, 1980, p. 14) In telegram 1501 from Moscow, January 29, the Embassy reported on the Islamic Conference from the Soviet perspective. In the aftermath of the strong anti-Soviet sentiment of the conference, the Embassy observed that the Soviet leadership “apparently made a serious miscalculation of the Islamic reaction to the invasion of Afghanistan,” and that the conference “represents a serious setback to Soviet foreign policy interests in the Muslim world.” (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Cables File, Box 6, Afghanistan: 1/29/80)↩