Office of the Historian

13. Memorandum From Director of Central Intelligence Turner to the Chairman of the Special Coordination Committee (Brzezinski)1

Washington, April 14, 1977

SUBJECT

  • Soviet ICBMs with MIRVs

1. At the SCC meeting on 7 April the question was raised whether the Soviets would exceed a US-proposed SALT limitation of 550 launchers of MIRVed ICBMs in the next few months.2 The answer to the question depends on what rules for counting launchers as MIRVed are agreed between the two sides.

2. Judging by the recent pace of the Soviet program, the number of ICBM launchers actually equipped with MIRVed missiles is likely to grow fairly slowly, in part because the Soviets have developed and are probably deploying both MIRVed and single-RV versions of their new generation ICBMs. [3 lines not declassified]. As you know, the US has proposed counting rules [less than 1 line not declassified]. These rules would credit as MIRVed all boosters and launchers of types which have been associated with MIRVs in testing or deployment. The US has also proposed that ICBM launchers be counted as MIRVed when conversion is in initial stages.

3. Our current estimate of Soviet MIRVed ICBM deployment this year, together with the number of launchers which would be credited with MIRVed missiles under the US proposals, is summarized in the attached table.3 The table shows that we expect the number of launchers actually equipped with MIRVed ICBMs to remain well short of 550 through 1977. However, under the combination of US proposals (i.e., the launcher and booster type counting rules plus the proposal to count launchers under conversion) the Soviet ICBM launchers credited as MIRVed would exceed 550 by October 1977. With the counting rules alone, the number would remain below 550 through the year, although it would be considerably larger than the probable actual Soviet total.

Stansfield Turner
Admiral, U.S. Navy
  1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Subject File, Box 55, SALT: Chronology: 3/25/77–5/9/77. Top Secret. Copies were sent to SCC members.↩
  2. For Brzezinski’s undated memorandum to Carter summarizing this meeting, see Foreign Relations, 1969–1976, vol. XXXIII, SALT II, 1972–1980, Document 158.↩
  3. Attached but not printed.↩