287. National Intelligence Estimate 75/76–701 2
[Map of the Horn of Africa]
[Page 5]THE HORN OF AFRICA
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
A. The Horn of Africa is an area of chronic tensions and instability. Existing religious, national, political and ideological divisions are exacerbated by powerful animosities stemming from the Middle East conflict and the involvement of Israel and the Arab states in the Horn. US and Israeli military aid to Ethiopia is seen by Sudan and Somalia as an imperialist conspiracy, and is viewed by anti-establishment groups in Ethiopia as a prop for Haile Selassie. Sudan and Somalia look to the radical Arab states for advice and are armed by the USSR.
B. In Ethiopia, the most important country in the Horn, Emperor Haile Selassie is managing to hold down the dissidence of students, bureaucrats, young intellectuals, and some within the military. There is always a possibility of a military coup. He also faces a long-festering insurgency in the province of Eritrea dominated by local Moslems and armed and funded by radical Arab states. The insurgents are not likely to achieve their goals, nor can the central government eliminate the rebels.
C. Kagnew Station, a major US communications base in Eritrea, is vulnerable to attack, but is not now directly threatened. We do not, however, discount the possibility of the ELF taking a more hostile attitude towards the US, nor do we rule out the possibility of isolated attacks on US persons or property by ultrazealous individuals or bands.
D. The death of the 78-year old Haile Selassie will inevitably alter the situation in the Horn. His son, the Crown Prince, will probably succeed him, but unless the Crown Prince is supported by both traditional and modernizing forces other contenders would challenge him. Much depends upon the army. If it turns to factional feuding, the central government would lose control, at least temporarily, over some outlying areas. Whatever form the successor government takes, [Page 6] it will face a monumental task in holding together the disparate peoples of the Empire.
E. We think that a successor government in Ethiopia would continue to look to the US as its primary backer. In view of the serious internal and external challenges which would confront the post-Haile Selassie regime, it would probably seek emergency support including arms and petroleum from the US, and would probably decide on further US use of Kagnew largely on the basis of the American response.
F. Somalia, now governed by an erratic and unstable leftist military council, has recently taken actions hostile to the US, and is increasingly susceptible to Soviet and radical Arab influences. Fearing the US and Ethiopia, it is seeking to reinforce its ties with the Soviet Union, and to strengthen relations with other radical states.
G. The Sudanese Government, also a leftist military council, is bogged down in a civil war against blacks in the south and opposed by Arab traditionalists in the north. Both dissident groups have received occasional aid from Ethiopia. Sudan could, and sometimes does, aid the Eritrean insurgents. But both Ethiopia and Sudan have kept such assistance at low levels.
H. Somalia generally accepts as a long range goal the annexation of Somali-inhabited lands in Kenya, Ethiopia, and the French Territory of the Afars and Issas (TFAI), and this contributes to the tension. Mogadiscio is unlikely to try to gain these lands until more favorable opportunities arise. If the French were to withdraw from the TFAI, or if the deaths of Kenyatta and Haile Selassie were followed by civil strife in these countries, Somalia would almost certainly seek territorial gains. This would lead to serious military clashes. Full scale warfare would be difficult because of the distances involved, and the logistic and organizational limitations of all armed force in the area.
I. Soviet interest in the area is growing, and is manifested by increasing naval visits and continued military aid to the Moslem states. The USSR has reduced Western influence in Sudan and Somalia, and would like to eliminate the US communications facility at Kagnew. We doubt, however, that the Soviets will be able much to improve their position in Ethiopia, even after the Emperorʼs death. It would be as awkward for the USSR as for the US, if open war broke out in the Horn. Hence we judge that the Soviets will try to restrain the Somalis and Sudanese.
[Page 7]DISCUSSION
I. INTRODUCTION
1. Tensions are normal in the inherently unstable Horn of Africa. This is true of personal, family, clan, and tribal, as well as international relationships. Principal elements of instability center around Ethiopia—restlessness of the modernizing elements, uneasiness about the succession, and concern over the insurgency in Eritrea. Another underlying element of tension is the presence of large Somali populations in certain areas of Kenya, Ethiopia, and the French Territory of the Afars and Issas. The Somali Government generally accepts the Greater Somalia concept and the Irredentist goal of annexing Somali-inhabited lands. Sudan has a role in the Eritrean insurgency in Ethiopia. Also, the major dissidents in Sudan receive sympathy and some aid from Ethiopia.
2. The existing religious, national, political and ideological divisions in the area are now being exacerbated by powerful animosities stemming from the Middle East conflict and the involvement of Israel and Arab states in the Horn. The resulting polarization of peoples and interests in the Horn is adding a larger dimension of instability and reinforcing tensions. Furthermore, the uneasy peace now prevailing in the Horn is beclouded by uncertainties surrounding the succession to the throne in Ethiopia.
3. Peace and stability in the Horn of Africa are of more than marginal concern to the US, principally because of Kagn wStation and broader US interests in Ethiopia.3 Kagnew, located on the outskirts of Asmara in Ethiopia, provides scientific data, and hard to replace communications facilities serving US installations over a large part of the world. It also performs a variety of other functions of importance to US security. US military and economic aid programs in Ethiopia, taken together, comprise the largest US assistance program in Africa. There are also strong diplomatic reasons for maintaining a US presence in Ethiopia; Addis Ababa has become a kind of capital of black Africa; and Haile Selassie still commands wide respect in Africa and in the Third World in general.
II. ETHIOPIA
A. The Regime
4. Ethiopia, the most important state in the area, is a centralized authoritarian regime, in which a minority of Coptic Christian Amharas holds a predominance of power over a heterogenous collection of peoples. In many respects—education, skills, literacy, economic infrastructure, and development—it ranks near the bottom even among underdeveloped countries. Yet it is unique in Africa for its historic continuity and the pervasive impact of feudal and Imperial traditions on a large proportion of the populace.
[Page 8]5. Haile Selassie, on the dual basis of the authority of his office and his own shrewd manipulation of nearly everyone and everything in the Ethiopian Government, so far retains fairly effective control over his ramshackle empire. Though nearly 78 years old, with gradually diminishing vigor and flexibility, he still makes all major and most minor decisions, moves ministers, governors, and generals in and out of office, and maintains a network of informants who pervade the government and provide information to the palace. In practice, he is both the chief architect of such modernization as has taken place in Ethiopia and the zealous preserver of an ancient feudal order.
6. National priorities and the allotment of budgetary funds to support them are determined by the Emperor.4 He particularly favors the armed services, especially the army and air force. Their primary mission, as Haile Selassie conceives it, is the conventional defense of land frontiers against hostile armies. He is determined to maintain forces superior to the Soviet-supported armies of neighboring Moslem states. In practice, the army has been more concerned with combating domestic insurgency and unrest. Ethiopian forces are equipped with US weapons of World War II and Korean War vintage, and are hampered by limitations in training and logistics. Poor roads and chronically short POL supplies restrict the armyʼs mobility. Estimates on the morale of the troops vary from fair to poor, but the great majority are considered loyal to the Emperor. In internal security operations, the armed forces receive some support from a well-trained commando police of 3,500. The 29,000-man regular police force is engaged primarily in normal police duties and contributes little to counter-insurgency.
7. In recent years the Emperor has managed with difficulty to preserve order and retain the allegiance of his multitribal subjects. Yet, his single-handed style of rule has alienated much of the younger generation, and this adds to the growing uncertainties and problems of succession. In the central highlands, the core of the Empire, the major problem is the disaffection of university and secondary students, many of them of the ruling Amhara tribe and the ethnically related Tigreans. Their di icontent is usually expressed as impatience with the slow pace of modernization and development, but also includes dissatisfaction with the amenities provided by government, apprehension over job prospects, tribal jealousies, and vague xenophobic feelings. In recent years, the dimensions of the student problem have grown from sporadic unrest at the university in Addis Ababa to a generalized confrontation which has intermittently paralyzed virtually all secondary and higher education. By and large, Haile Selassieʼs tactics of conciliation and compromise, and the dismissal or arrest of student leaders, have temporarily restored order following clashes in December 1969 during which several students were killed. But, student dissidence is virtually certain to crop up again, and, if they are joined by a significant portion of the modern elite in the bureaucracy, police or army, the regime could quickly find itself in serious [Page 9] trouble. The chances are, though, that the various discontented elements at the center would not coalesce, and that future manifestations will be messy but manageable.
8. There is however, always a possibility of a military seizure of power before the Emperorʼs death. Prolongation of his rule might, and incapacitation of the Emperor would probably, Increase ruspects for such an event. There have already been several attempts on his life; an abortive coup was put down in 1960; and several more recent plots have been uncovered. While there is no present evidence of plotting within the military, discontent is chronic and widespread, particularly among the junior officers.
9. The Moslem and animist peoples, who together constitute a majority of the population, dislike the ruling Amharas and feel little allegiance to the Empire. They have failed to gain much materially from incorporation in Ethiopia. In some areas, this dissatisfaction takes the form of sporadic violent actions against tax collectors and other officials of central government; in other regions, deep apathy prevails. In southern Ethiopia, bands of Arussi Gallas with only vague ideological or political aims, but with some support from Somalia, defied the Emperor and fended off a division of the Ethiopian Army for several years before yielding to military pressure and an amnesty offer in early 1970.
10. The Ogaden is a special problem. This arid wasteland in the southeast is almost exclusively inhabited by some half million Somali nomads, who have been reasonably quiet in the past couple of years. In the early 1960s, however, there were regular clashes in the Ogaden culminating in a brief border war in 1964. Somalia has never recognized this border, and periodically has armed and trained local Somalis. Conflict in the Ogaden has been reduced by a precarious detente between Somalia and Ethiopia which was the product of the former civilian regime in Mogadiscio, and viewed with skepticism by the Ethiopians. Ethiopian control of the Ogaden is maintained by a substantial military force. It is highly unlikely that Haile Selassie, or any successor, would choose to yield the Ogaden to Somalia no matter what the inducements. Indeed, the Imperial Government may be still considering a scheme of settling army veterans in new villages along the border, in order to reinforce Ethiopian claims to the Ogaden.
B. Eritrea
11. With an uneasy truce in the Ogaden and the surrender of most Arussi dissidents, Ethiopiaʼs most pressing internal security problem is in Eritrea, the northernmost province and a former Italian colony. The Eritrean population of some 1.6 million is about evenly divided between Coptic Christians, mainly Tigreans, most of whom are indistinguishable physically from fellow tribesmen in neighboring provinces of Ethiopia, and Moslems. It is mainly because of their greater exposure to Western ways and their resentment of Amhara domination, that Eritreans are inlined toward separatism.
12. The Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF), founded in 1961 by a handful of self-exiled Eritreans, began guerrilla operations against the Imperial Government [Page 10] in the fashion of the traditional bandits of that province. By 1966, it had a free hand in much of the barren lowlands in western and coastal Eritrea. The movement suffered as Arab aid flagged after the Middle East War in 1967, but it re-emerged in early 1969 with more dramatic tactics emphasizing terrorism: raids against road and rail traffic in Eritrea; attacks on power and water installations in Asmara, the Eritrean capital; kidnapping of travelers including some Americans; and sabotage and hijacking of Ethiopian Air Lines planes. After some months of inactivity, they have recently resumed urban terrorism, including assassination of civilian and police officials.
13. The ELF is still small in number, probably less than 2,000 armed guerrillas; its leadership In the field is often inept; and communications between roving guerrilla bands and the exiled leaders are sporadic at best. Nonetheless, it is able to infiltrate small arms and returning trainees by way of Sudan and the Red Sea coast, and can harass Imperial forces in Eritrea. Its forces are sometimes supplemented by those of sympathetic Moslem tribes.
14. Clearly, the advantage still lies with the Israel-trained commando police and the Ethiopian Army, whose Second Division, based in Eritrea, makes periodic sweeps through the provinces. The commando police, more efficient than the army, are too few in number (some 3,500) to protect important installations and also pursue the insurgents. And the Second Division, virtually all Amharas, is poorly disciplined and not very effective. Its normal tactics are to burn villages, shoot suspects, and destroy livestock—the traditional Ethiopian response to dissidence.
15. Neither the ELF nor the Ethiopian Government have tried very hard to win the support of the Eritrean populace. Most Eritreans are resentful of close-fisted Amhara rule, which they feel drains off local resources to benefit the central government and other provinces. Even if the central government were disposed to placate the province, it has few funds for economic development. On the other side, the guerrillas tend to rely more on intimidation and extortion from their fellow Eritreans than on indoctrination or appeals for support and sympathy. Yet, there appears to be a growing realization by Eritreans, Christian as well as Moslem, that the ELF is likely to remain a feature of the local political scene. At this stage, most Eritrean Christians have no urge to replace Amhara rule with what appears to them as a militant Moslem movement in league with radical foreign Arabs. Moslems in the province view the ELF with more interest, but many have divided or conflicting loyalties, and are fearful enough of the Imperial clout to maintain a neutral attitude.
16. Despite the fact that ELF terrorist capabilities are rising, Imperial forces seem likely to be able, to contain the ELF or keep it on the move. In short, the ELF has virtually no chance of overthrowing Ethiopian authority in Eritrea, nor can Ethiopia stamp out the dissidence. The ELF will, however, remain a severe domestic irritant.
17. The ELF can look for continuing support from external sources. Syria, its most important backer, permits free movement of ELF personnel, makes avail [Page 11] able broadcasting facilities on Radio Damascus, accepts groups of up to 80 recruits at a time for paramilitary training, and also, furnishes a large part of the arms used in Eritrea. Libya gives substantial financial backing. Iraq provides arms, trains ELF officer candidates, and assists ELF propaganda efforts. Both Communist China and Cuba have accepted some ELF recruits for training, and China has shipped some weapons to the guerrillas through intermediaries in South Yemen and Sudan.
18. The attitudes and actions of Sudan are particularly important to the success of the insurgency, and a succession of Sudanese governments have vacillated on the matter. Normally the ELF moves back and forth across the Sudanese border without much hindrance. The current leftist Sudanese regime would be inclined to give more aid to the ELF, were it not for the possibility of stepped up Ethiopian aid to rebel blacks in southern Sudan or to conservative factions in the north.
19. The ELF has thus far ignored US installations at Kagnew Station. The Kagnew facilities, including the vast antenna fields and the large dish radars are highly vulnerable to sabotage or surprise attack. Installations are scattered over a wide area with villages and public roads interspersed. Large numbers of people in the course of their daily business come into proximity to buildings and equipment on the base. It would not be difficult to lob a few mortar shells into critical parts of Kagnew from outside the guarded base areas. And it would be even simpler for one of the 1,700 local employees to bring explosives into the base, if sabotage were the ELF goal.
20. There is no evidence of a present threat to Kagnew. Those Americans who have been waylaid or taken captive by the ELF (including the Consul-General at Asmara, a party of sergeants from Kagnew, a National Geographic photographer and a Peace Corps volunteer) report little hostility toward the US and no direct threats to Kagnew. The rebels are concerned with publicity for their cause, and assurances of US neutrality in their struggle against the Imperial Government. By and large, the ELF seems to believe that the Ethiopian Government is a formidable enough foe without also taking on the US. The insurgents are, however, well aware that Washington is providing Ethiopia with economic assistance and arms, and they may assume that the latter is quid pro quo for use of Kagnew.5
21. There are however, ominous stirrings which could change the situation abruptly. A recent shakeup in the exile command has brought some hardline activists to the fore but they seem to have little effective control over insurgent bands in Eritrea. Moreover, the ELF broadcasts from Damascus are increasingly charged with highly emotional blasts against feudal, Imperialistic, and Zionist foes. Linking the US with their archenemies—Ethiopia and Israel—these pronouncements tend to polarize the issues in the Middle East-Red Sea area and
[Page 12][map of Ethiopia-Asmara: U.S. Communications Facilities] [Page 13] associate the ELF with the radical Arabs and Palestinian fedayeen. These broadcasts though chiefly designed to curry favor with the Arab host countries, could sway those ELF insurgents who hear them toward anti-US actions. There is also the danger that in time ELF leaders in the emotionally charged atmosphere of Damascus and Baghdad may come to believe their own propaganda and shift their orders to the field accordingly. Perhaps the most disturbing development, from the US point of view, is the influx of guerrillas returning to Eritrea from training in bitterly anti-US countries who may be tempted to initiate hostile actions against Kagnew or US personnel.
22. In sum, despite the obvious deficiencies of the ELF in manpower, organization, and communications, and their decision thus far not to tangle with the US, we do not discount the possibility of the ELF taking a more hostile attitude toward the US nor do we rule out the possibility of isolated attacks on US persons or property by ultrazealous individuals or bands. Dramatic developments in the Middle East could affect the situation.
C. The Succession
23. Disunity within the establishment, however, poses a more direct threat to Ethiopian stability than do the Eritrean insurgency or hostile neighbors. The danger to both Ethiopian stability and to US interests will, therefore, become most acute when Haile Selassie leaves the scene. Despite the historic tradition of challenging each Imperial successor, there are persuasive reasons for estimating a smooth transfer of power: the Constitutional designation of Crown Prince Asia Wossen as heir to the throne; the establishment of a national army In place of feudal levies; the growth of a national treasury and a centralized bureaucracy; the power of the Church; and some sense of Ethiopian nationalism among the Amharas and some Tigreans and Callas. Weighed against this are the fragility of some institutions and the absence of others, tribal Jealousies and personal ambitions, and the long pent-up feelings of all those who have been restive under the Emperorʼs autocratic rule. To some extent Haile Selassie, by employing a highly personal style of rule, has fostered the very things that threaten a smooth succession.
24. Despite the foregoing, it is generally assumed that the Crown Prince, now 54 years old, will succeed to the throne. But he will almost certainly not wield his fatherʼs vast personal power, nor does he seem disposed to try. Unless he is supported by both traditional and modernizing forces, other contenders would probably make a bid fur the throne. A few powerful Amharic and Tigrean nobles boast of claims to the Solomon-Sheba line of succession which are at least as good as the Crown Princeʼs.
25. Much would depend upon the cohesion of the armed forces which might assume an expanded role. Currently the army is held together mainly by respect for and fear of the Emperor, and by personal allegiances based on family, clan or marriage. Considerable rivalries have already been generated within the officer corps by the Emperorʼs practice of playing off military leaders against each [Page 14] other. The possibility of factional feuding among the top officers, and among the powerful nobility outside of the armed forces, is very strong. Should the army unite in support of the Crown Prince (or another candidate) then the transition to a new regime could be fairly smooth.
26. Whatever form the successor government takes, it will face a monumental task in holding together the displrate peoples of the Empire. If succession becomes such a contentious issue that troops and leaders flock to the central region, the Empire would probably lose control over some outlying areas, and might even find its integrity threatened. The death of Haile Selassie is the moment for watch all dissidents within the Empire are waiting. The ELF would make some bold moves toward “liberating” Eritrea. They would not have much chance of success unless substantial Ethiopian Army and police units were removed from the province, or they dissolve in confusion. Somalis in the Ogaden would almost certainly attempt to join the Somali Republic, if Ethiopian military force in that area were greatly weakened. Some among the Gallas, the largest ethnic group in the country, would demand a greater share in the central government, and if denied might engage in some dissidence. While an interval of lawlessness and uncertainty would be likely in such circumstances, there is a better than even chance that a central government would reassert authority.
27. There is a good chance that a successor government will take a more belligerent stance in dealing with internal foes and with neighboring states. Relations with Sudan and Somalia are likely to be more abrasive, and the chances of border clashes or of attempts by neighbors to foster dissidence in Ethiopia would be greater. Ethiopiaʼs friendly relations with Kenya would not be affected by the succession, nor would Kenya take any part in an internal Ethiopian struggle. Any successor regime in Addis Ababa would lack much of the confidence and assurance which Haile Selassie possesses. But even if the “modernizers” were to gain predominance, the basic outlook of Ethiopia would almost certainly remain much as it has been under the Emperor, i.e., the dominant group in the country would still see itself as defending a Christian bastion against Moslems whose support from the Communist powers could only be balanced by aid for Ethiopia from the West. Until the regime stabilizes, Ethiopiaʼs leading role in African affairs—in large part the result of Haile Selassieʼs personal initiative—is likely to decline.
III. SOMALIA
28. Somalia has the advantage unique in Africa of ethnic and religious homogeneity, but few other assets. It is much smaller and poorer than Ethiopia. A large portion of its nearly 3 million inhabitants—another 850,000 Somalis reside in Ethiopia and Kenya—are nomads, and only a few are settled farmers. Others are semiemployed urban dwellers. Many of the Somali nomads roam freely across borders in seasonal migrations to watering places in Kenya, Ethiopia, and the French Territory of the Afars and Issas. The relatively democratic system of government which prevailed since independence in 1960 was shaken by [Page 15] election frauds and corruption prior to being swept away last fall by a military coup. Currently a cumbersome 24-man group of army and police officers, calling itself the Supreme Revolutionary Council (SRC), is attempting to rule the country. Its leading figure, General Siad, is an opportunist whose political skills are now being tested. Since the coup he has gradually assumed greater authority in the council, though his views may not always prevail.
29. Given the awkwardness of government by revolutionary council, the limited abilities and experience of its youthful members, and the intractable national problems, it is hardly surprising that the regime has provided little sense of direction. It is still uncertain of what to do with its civilian predecessors, now held in detention. It is also aware that some important clans believe themselves inadequately represented in government, and are likely to make their discontent more evident in some fashion. Moreover, the SRC faces severe economic problems, brought on by drought, a recession in the small modern sector, and diminished government rivenues. Even in better times, Somalia depended heavily upon outside assistance, of which an annual Italian donation to meet budgetary expenses was most important. The Italian subsidy continues, but other foreign aid has fallen off. The multiplicity of economic and social problems faced by the SRC and tribal, generational, and ideological tensions within the government suggest further instability and change.
30. The SRC, like its counterparts in Libya and Sudan which also came on the scene in 1969, is fiercely nationalistic, with some leanings toward Islamic puritanism. The regime is also much more susceptible than its predecessor to radical Arab blandishments. Somalis do not normally consider themselves part of the Arab world, but Islamic ties are stronger than ever and of more interest to the SRC than relations with black Africa. Perhaps also, some of the Somali overtures to the Arabs are motivated by hopes of getting money from an oil-rich Arab state.
31. Unlike the previous regime, which was officially non-aligned but with a tilt to the West, the SRC has taken several actions aggravating relations with the US Including the expulsion of the Peace Corps In December 1989, the expulsion of five embassy officials in May 1970, and the nationalization of some foreign businesses also in May. Some SRC members evidently believe that the US is plotting to do them in. In part this stems from the close relations between the US and former Prime Minister Eo2Z now under arrest. It also derives from the US role as arms supplier to the archenemy, Ethiopia, and is probably encouraged by Soviet advisors in Mogadiscio. Yet, although some SRC members urge a break in relations with the US; others are hopeful of retaining US economic aid, as well as an image of non-alignment.6 At the moment a modest US presence is tolerated, but this may change for the worse.
[Page 16]32. The position of the USSR in Somalia is quite different. Although the Russians have furnished $63 million in economic aid, and $35 million in military aid, it is the latter which affords them easy entree into the offices of the SRC. Soviet involvement with the Somali Army began in 1963. The Somali Government, at that time facing a relatively well-armed Ethiopia in a bitter dispute over the Ogaden, made a futile attempt to get arms and training from a number of countries, East and West. The Soviets made an offer, perhaps to forestall a Chinese bid. Since then, the USSR has provided virtually all weapons and training for the Somali Army. Many of the officers on the SRC have been trained in Soviet military academies, but not all are considered pro-Soviet.
33. Somali foreign policy pronouncements are a curious mixture of strident assertions of independence, denunciation of neocolonialism, and praise for the USSR. The SRC extended diplomatic recognition to East Germany (among the first black African states to do so), made port facilities available to Soviet naval vessels, and outdid itself in celebrating the Lenin Centenary. Much of this is dearly designed to induce the Soviets to provide more aid. Shortly after the coup a Soviet delegation toured Somalia. It saw the dismal results of past economic aid—faltering state farms, under-utilized factories, and a fish processing facility which has not yet proved to be of value. There is still no announcement of new aid, economic or military, from Moscow, though the Somali needs are daily becoming more pressing. The Soviets are undoubtedly reluctant to assume the burdens of keeping afloat such an unpromising state. They may also be unsure of the staying power of the present regime, and wary of overly close identification with a possible early loser.
34. Thus far the SRC has not defined its position on the Greater Somalia issue, either because it is too unsure of its own stability, or because it is divided on the matter. The previous governmentʼs detente policy was not popular with a good many Somalis, including most of the military. But not all of those who reject detente are keen on instigating insurgencies in Somali inhabited lands across the borders. The various attempts to stir up trouble in these lands in the past have not helped the Greater Somali cause, and have left a heritage of tensions and distrust. We believe that the SRC, if it can hold power over the next year or two, will make some gestures in the direction of irredentism, such as a resumption of propaganda aiming at the unity of all Somalis or a clandestine training program for cross-border insurgents. It is doubtful, however, that the SRC would promote active insurgency in these areas unless more favorable conditions came about. Such favorable circumstances would include the withdrawal of France from the TFAI, and the deaths of Haile Selassie and President Kenyatta of Kenya, should these events lead to civil conflict.
35. Essentially, the Greater Somalia concept runs counter to the general African dictum on inviolability of borders. Somali claims to territory of their neighbors are simply incompatible with the national policies of Kenya and Ethiopia. If Somalia resumes efforts to gain control of these lands, whether directly or through now dormant “liberation fronts,” hostilities with the neighboring lands would ensue. If Somali armed forces were not so obviously inferior to those of Ethiopia, [Page 17] or of Kenya in league with Ethiopia, the danger in the Horn would be much greater. Distances, poor roads, and inadequate logistic capabilities of all armies in the area also weigh heavily as factors inhibiting open war. Yet, the tensions persist, Somalis are not likely soon to give up their Irredentist dreams, and opportunities across the frontiers in Kenya and Ethiopia may tempt the Somalis into an adventure.
IV. THE FRENCH TERRITORY OF THE AFARS AND ISSAS
36. A critical area of potential strife is the French Territory of the Afars and Issas (TFAI), formerly known as French Somaliland. Ethnic Somalis (Issas) are in the majority in the port-rail city of Djibouti, and perhaps in the territory as a whole. Yet the French prefer to rule through a local assembly dominated by Afars (a nomadic tribe with its main base in Ethiopia). Continued French rule is costly to Paris, especially since the closure of the Suez Canal, and the French appear to have little interest in retaining the territory naide from the convenience of the port and airfield as links to territories to the east and south. They stay on because there is little anti-colonialist pressure even from radical Africans, and because they believe they would be held responsible for the mess after their departure. Both Somalia and Ethiopia are irreconcilably opposed to the other gaining control over the territory. Djibouti is important to Ethiopia as the terminus of the only rail link from Addis Ababa to the sea. The Somalis have long claimed the territory because they believe its population to be predominantly Somali.
37. The TFAI domestic scene is fairly tranquil. Afars and Issas do not like or trust each other, but French security forces, some 3,800 troops, are sufficient to maintain order. Only sporadic terrorist incidents have occurred since the violence which marred De Gaulleʼs visit to Djibouti in 1966 and the subsequent referendum. Indeed, Somalia is trying to improve relations with the French in order to encourage a plebiscite in which ethnic Somalis would stand a good chance of gaining control.
38. The French would probably withdraw if they thought there was a good chance of finding a political solution agreeable to Ethiopia and Somalia. They might also leave if it became clear that the populace wanted then out. Otherwise we expect the French to remain for some time. There is no obvious solution to the TFAI problem. An independent TFAI would probably quickly become the scene of a struggle between Somalis and Ethiopians. If France turned the territory over to an international control group, it would merely perpetuate or postpone the resolution of the problem.
V. ISRAELI AND ARAB INTERESTS
[Page 18]39. [text not declassified]
40. [text not declassified]
41. [text not declassified]
42. Ethiopian fears of Moslem encirclement have been compounded in the past year by the appearance of radical military regimes in Khartoum and Mogadiscio. In both cases, Soviet and radical Arab influence has increased substantially. Sudan, furthermore, has signed agreements providing for military and economic cooperation with Libya and the UAR. A Somali delegation has also visited each of these countries and probably made further overtures for a military pact with cudan. Military cooperation between twc inept armies, widely separated and both preoccupied with internal problems, would, however, have little material effect on the situation in the Horn. More importantly, Somali and Sudanese ties with the radical Arab states are likely further to arouse Ethiopian suspicions.
43. Pan-African Ideals which in the past decade have had some softening effect on tensions between Arab and black Africans have declined. For some years, only Syria and Iraq openly supported the ELF. Though Algeria, the UAR, [Page 19] and Libya often passed funds to the Eritrean rebels, they did so clandestinely. The concept of African unity was a deterrent to an open acknowledgement of support, particularly in the case of such a prestigious leader as Haile Selassie. But, at the last summit meeting of the Organization of African Unity, the hackers of the ELF openly boasted of their assistance. At the same time, Somalia and the African Arabs (minus Tunisia) further infuriated the Ethiopians by refusing to support a resolution against hijacking of airplanes.
44. The general deterioration of relations between Ethiopia and the Moslem states in the area reflects the heightened tensions of the Arab-Israeli struggle. Chronic suspicions and misunderstandings are intensified by rumors on both sides, and by the shrill pitch of radical Arab rhetoric pouring forth from radio and newspapers. The high level of Middle East tensions reduce prospects of improved relations in the Horn. The outlook is for more tensions, and further polarization of the peoples and states of the Horn.
VI. SOVIET INTERESTS
45. Soviet strategic interests in the Horn of Africa are associated with but clearly subordinate to their involvement in the Middle East and Mediterranean. Soviet activities in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean contribute to their interest in the Horn. This is further enhanced by the fact that, since the closing of the Suez Canal, the Gulf of Aden provides the only access to the Red Sea. Visits to ports in Somalia, Sudan, and South Yemen are becoming more frequent and servo to remind the local regimes of Soviet interest in their lands and to demonstrate Soviet power. Another, and perhaps more important, instrument of Soviet policy is the provision of military aid to Somalia and Sudan. In the case of Somalia, it is this type of aid which has afforded the USSR a strong measure of influence with the military rulers.
46. A primary Soviet objective in the Horn, as in much of the Third World, is to deny the area to the West, but it is difficult to discern much beyond that. Soviet opportunities in Somalia and Sudan are more promising at the moment, but the Russians have not neglected Addis Ababa. Undoubtedly, they would like to have the US base at Kagnew removed. But they have apparently given no direct aid to the ELF, nor do they issue threats to Ethiopia. Rather, they are endeavoring to retain the good will of Haile Selassie, even though they are arming his enemies. When the Emperor complains to Moscow of its arms shipments and training of Somalis, he is told that he, too, can receive Russian arms if he wishes. Probably a condition would be to reduce the American presence. The USSR, meanwhile, is biding its time, offering further economic aid from the credit line of $100 million—extended to Ethiopia in 1959 but only scantily drawn upon. The Soviets seem to be counting on opportunities to gain influence or oust the US after Haile Selassieʼs death. It is unlikely that they will succeed in doing so.
47. Soviet aid to Somalia and Sudan has not cost a great deal either in money, personnel, or damaged relations with Ethiopia. Nor have they done much over [Page 20] the years to take advantage of their strong position in Somalia. Western scientists have speculated that Somalia would be a useful site for major Soviet space tracking or monitoring installations. Apparently the USSR is not presently interested in using its influence in Somalia in this way. Thus far, it has managed to reduce Western Influences in Sudan and Somalia, and that is probably sufficient satisfaction to Moscow at this time. Perhaps at some point the Soviets would find it useful to seek naval, air, or sophisticated space tracking facilities in these countries. At the moment they have the use of Aden as a port of call, which is better equipped than the ports of Somalia and Sudan. The Soviets rely mainly on their own lines of supply for support and apparently make port visits mainly for political reasons. Soviet combat ships have visited Somalia more than any other country in the area.
VII. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES
48. The great uncertainty in the Horn is the aftermath of the Emperorʼs death. We think that a successor government would continue to look to the US as its primary backer, if only because the Soviets are deeply involved with the enemies of the Empire. If a successor regime faces some difficulty from internal or external challenges, as seems likely, it would look to the US for additional, emergency support including arms and petroleum, and would probably make subsequent judgments on the continuation of US use of Kagnew largely on the basis of the American response.
49. The US lease on Kagnew Station runs through 1978. In a day when military bases of the Great Powers in African countries are generally unwelcome, there is virtually no clamor in Ethiopia against the installation. It is a communications and scientific research base and is publicized as such—with some effect, apparently—in the area. In Eritrea, its contribution to the economy has a significant influence on its acceptability. Propaganda blasts from Communist, Arab, and ELF media will certainly continue to hammer at the foreign base theme, particularly after the US withdrawal from Wheelus base in Libya. But this is likely to have little effect on Haile Selassie. Nor do we think that the ELF is now considering hostile activity against Kagnew, but there is a danger that the ELF command will slide into anti-Americanism, and order hostile actions against Kagnew.
50. In the chronically tense atmosphere of the Horn, there is always a strong risk of a minor incident escalating into a larger conflict. The US no longer has much influence in Somalia or Sudan, but does have a potential capability for restraining Ethiopian military action. So far as we can determine, the USSR is not encouraging Somalia and Sudan towards more bellicose positions. Indeed, it would be awkward for both the US and the USSR, if a conflict broke out between Somalia and Ethiopia. The Ethiopians would look to Washington for moral and materiel support, and the US would face some difficult policy decisions.
[Page 21]51. Although the US need for Kagnew is a factor in our present interests in the Horn, there is the broader question of the US position in Ethiopia. There are few US investments there, though the potential for development is considered promising. Access to Ethiopian airfields and ports is potentially of great value to the US. In a broader sense, a stable Ethiopia is a kind of linchpin for conservative forces in the area, e.g., Kenya, and Saudi Arabia. Also a strong US presence in a major African country probably helps encourage moderate, pro-Western views in Africa as a whole.
[Page 22]- Source: Central Intelligence Agency Files, DDI Files, Job 79R–01012A, Box 391, Folder 2. Secret.↩
- In Ethiopia, the Emperor was restraining dissidents such as students, bureaucrats, and young intellectuals, but a military coup was always a possibility. Kagnew Station was not now directly threatened. Should the Emperor die, the successor government would likely continue to look to the United States as its primary backer. Somalia was unstable, leftist, and susceptible to Soviet influence. Sudan also was leftist, but involved in a civil war. U.S. influence in Somalia and Sudan was minimal. Soviet interest in the area was growing.↩
- Some 3,200 US military and civilian personnel and dependents live at Kagnew, and there are about 2,800 other Americans in Ethiopia.↩
- For tables on numbers and equipment of the Ethiopian armed forces, see Annex↩
- The US has furnished Ethiopia with $230 million In economic assistance since 1948, and $150 million in military aid since 1953.↩
- The US since 1954 has extended approximately $72 million in economic aid to Somalia, and Is setting aside some $1.9 million for FY 1971.↩