106. Letter From Norman Cousins to the Presidentʼs Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger)1 2
Dear Henry Kissinger:
The two main points of my report on Nigeria and Biafra are; first, it may be a serious error to base a policy on the probability of early Federal victory; second, President Nixon may be in a position to play an effective role in bringing the war to an end.
Let me briefly develop these two points.
1) The Biafrans are demonstrating sustained resistance capabilities. There is no shortage of arms, nor is there likely to be one. About 90% of Biafran military equipment is obtained not from France but from Nigerian forces, which has difficulty in maintaining its lines of supply. The Federal government “occupies” most Biafran territory but does not control it. Biafran strategy is one of strategic initial retreat along the main roads, followed by systematic and highly trained guerrilla activity against Nigerian lines of supply. This strategy was responsible for the recapture of the entire Owerri area—far more important, strategically, than the loss of Umahia. Incidentally, there is a better than fair probability that Umahia will be retaken within three months.
The continuing critical food shortage should be considered in the light of two facts. First, the most serious part of the problem by far pertains to the refugee population (between three and five million people; no reliable records available). The resident population will probably be able to get by. Second, the large crops planted by the land army are just now coming in. Hence, the food situation may be a serious but not decisive factor in Biafraʼs ability to persevere.
[Page 2]2) The significance of the present military standoff is that a precarious opportunity now exists for bringing about talks. Neither side is so strong that it has unlimited confidence in its ability to achieve its objectives by force. Yet neither is so weak that it fears its bargaining power would be seriously reduced.
How long the present balance will last is difficult to say. What we do know is that the Federal government has given some hints of its readiness to negotiate and Biafra has made a specific statement to the President on the matter.
This brings us to the possible role of the President.
General Gowon told me he is prepared to hold talks without pre-conditions immediately but he is certain that General Ojukwu is not. This is precisely what General Ojukwu believes about General Gowon. Both sides have indicated an interest in having a respected third party take responsible initiative in proposing or facilitating talks. There is an opening for the President, therefore, to convey separate, unofficial, and secret word to both sides that he is prepared to urge negotiations if the leaders think any useful purpose will be served by so doing.
You have asked me what I would say to General Gowon on my return to Lagos. I intend to reiterate that I brought to General Ojukwu the Generalʼs message of peace with justice and mercy and that I have reason to believe that the message was seriously considered. Also, that on my return to the United States, I conveyed to the President through you the report of my private and unofficial trip to Nigeria, reporting my clear impression that the Presidentʼs good offices would be welcomed in the present situation. I would also say to General Gowon that the President expressed a deep interest but would feel free to proceed only if he had from both sides specific encouragement and a clear indication of the kind of initiative he might take that would optimize the chances for successful negotiations.
I would have with me private letters from the President that would give substance to this view. The drafts enclosed are suggestions in that direction.
Sincerely,
- Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 741, Country Files, Africa, Nigeria, Vol. I. Confidential.↩
- Norman Cousins, editor of the Saturday Review, expressed his reservations about the possibility of an early Federal victory and his belief that President Nixon could play an effective role in ending the war. He suggested that the food situation might be serious but was not decisive in Biafraʼs ability to persevere.↩