133. Memorandum From William Stearman of the National Security Council Staff to Secretary of State Kissinger 1

SUBJECT

  • Serious Communist Attacks may be Imminent

A series of intelligence reports just received indicate serious Communist attacks in MRs 1, 2 and 3 possibly within a week; however, a general offensive is not expected.

  • —On August 6, an element of the 325th Division in Quang Tri Province (MR1) was informed that “open fire time would be K-hour, D-day plus 2.”
  • —A local force unit in Quang Nam Province was instructed to prepare for a “general offensive.”
  • —Headquarters of the B–3 Front (Western Highlands in MR2) has just moved from southern Laos to South Vietnam.
  • —In MR–3, there has been a marked increase in tactical communications among the 5th, 7th and 9th Divisions and an advanced COSVN military headquarters which was established in April.
  • —The 308th Division in the Hanoi area (one of the six NVA reserve divisions in North Vietnam), since July 15, has had an inordinately high level of communication activity. This may well indicate that the division is on an alert status and may be preparing to move.
  • —General Van Tien Dung, who has probably replaced Vo Nguyen Giap as NVA Commander, has not been seen publicly since July 15 and missed an Army function in early August which he would have probably attended had he not been preoccupied with more urgent business.
  1. Source: Ford Library, National Security Adviser, Outside the System Files, Box 1, Chronological. Secret; Sensitive. Urgent; Sent for information.