205. Special National Intelligence Estimate1
PROSPECTS OF CHINESE COMMUNIST INVOLVEMENT IN THE INDO-PAKISTAN WAR
Conclusion
We believe that China will avoid direct, large-scale, military involvement in the Indo-Pakistan war. An impending Pakistani defeat would, however, substantially increase the pressures for Chinese entry. Even in this circumstance we believe the chances are better than even that the logistic problems involved and the primacy of Vietnam in China’s interests would keep China from undertaking a major military venture against India. In addition to propaganda, political support, and military gestures, China will probably offer material aid, but it probably cannot deliver more than token amounts. It will make threats and there is an even chance it will make small-scale military probes across the Indian frontier; the odds that it might launch a limited-objective attack similar to that of 1962 are somewhat lower. In either case it would expect to produce political and psychological effects far greater than the military importance would justify.
[Here follows the 11-page Discussion portion of the Estimate.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem; Sensitive. According to a note on the cover sheet, the estimate was prepared by the CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State and Defense, and the NSA. All members of the U.S. Intelligence Board concurred in the estimate on September 16 except the representatives of the Atomic Energy Commission and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who abstained because the subject matter was outside of their jurisdiction.↩