464. Memorandum From Nathaniel Davis and Harold H. Saunders of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow)1
At day’s end, we want you to know what the Intelligence Community is doing on Soviet activity in Yemen. OCI this afternoon is putting the finishing touches on its memorandum on the subject. ONE is doing a more estimative memo which will be ready early in the week. INR is writing an all-sources memo to bring together a complete record of the intelligence.2 Luke Battle has long been concerned about this situation and is watching it closely but still sees nothing more that we should be doing.
You will be interested in some of the preliminary observations which the authors of these papers have made:
- —The Soviet airlift since November 17 looks dramatic but we ought to remember that this is the only way the Soviets can get to Yemen with the Suez Canal closed. Compared to the airlift to the UAR last summer, this one is relatively modest. While about 100 flights to Yemen are now scheduled compared with 300 to the UAR over the summer, we have to remember that the resupply to the UAR also included 2-3 dozen shiploads of equipment. The total so far moved to the Yemen amounts to the equivalent of about one shipload.
- —The evidence clearly points toward the direct involvement of Soviet pilots in combat—although the Intelligence people are still not willing to say they are sure. Flights by Soviet pilots may have been a stop-gap measure pending the arrival and readiness of the Syrian pilots who have been flown in. (Soviet pilots also flew sorties in Yemen in 1963 during the Egyptian campaign, when the Egyptians were not yet combat effective.)
- —The Soviets look to us as if they are out on a limb. However, we have not had people on the ground in Yemen for more than six months, and they may know more than we about the balance of forces there. However, they may simply have decided along with the Egyptians that they just could not let the Republicans down without trying to help.
- —If the Yemen’s Republicans lose, the Soviets have lost their stake. They may figure that this additional effort is at least worth a try. They [Page 857] may also calculate that the stakes vis-a-vis the United States are not very high, and their vigor in supporting an Arab friend will offset the “neo-colonialism” aspect of the matter.
- —People do not appear to be thinking in terms of any Soviet commitment of ground forces. The shuttle flights are carrying personnel, but their nationality is not clear and they may be advisers, trainers, etc.
When the intelligence papers are all in early next week, we will sit down with Bob Ginsburgh and see if they provide any new insights. Meanwhile, today’s developments on the ground do not take us much beyond where we were when we talked this morning.
- Nathaniel Davis
- Harold H. Saunders 3