Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXI, Near East Region; Arabian Peninsula

383. Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs (Hare) to the Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (Johnson)¹

Washington, December 27, 1965.

SUBJECT

• Politico-Military Contingency Planning Pursuant to NSAM 277:² UAR-Saudi Arabian Hostilities over Yemen

1. Pursuant to Ambassador Thompson’s memorandum of September 15,³ there is enclosed a political-military contingency study on UAR-Saudi hostilities over Yemen. This study was prepared with the assistance of the Department of Defense (ISA, JCS, DIA and DOD Policy Planning) and CIA.

2. This study has been undertaken at a time when the situation in Yemen is in great flux. The Nasser-Faisal agreement of August 24 brought about a cease-fire in the three-year Yemeni civil war and led royalists and republicans to the conference table at Haradh beginning November 23. At the time the present draft was completed and agreed upon by committee participants the Haradh conference was still in session, but it had failed to make any significant progress toward the creation of an all-Yemeni provisional government. The Yemeni situation is so volatile that it is difficult to rule out any hypothesis, from the peaceful establishment of a royalist-republican interim government to full scale resumption of civil war, with UAR and Saudi participation. This uncertainty merely highlights the utility of contingency planning.

3. A central problem in any consideration of possible Saudi-UAR hostilities is to find a means of honoring our often reiterated verbal commitment (see Annex A of contingency paper)⁴ to protect Saudi integrity while avoiding being drawn into a degree of direct military involvement which might redound to the disadvantage both of the US and the Saudi monarchy. One of the main potential dangers appears to be that of too precipitate US military action in the Saudi defense. For this reason we have stressed diplomatic action to forestall and arrest a UAR-Saudi conflict and have foreseen direct US military intervention only in the most extreme circumstances.

4. While a paper covering the contingency of a coup in Saudi Arabia was done in 1964,⁵ this is the first study of its kind on Saudi-UAR hostilities over Yemen. Owing to the volatile nature of the Yemeni situation, we believe it would be advisable to take a further look at this study within the next six months. A review during this period will enable us to take account both of developments in the rapidly changing Yemeni situation and comments by Embassies Jidda and Cairo.

Attachment

Contingency Planning Paper

UAR-SAUDI HOSTILITIES OVER YEMEN

I—Summary

While tension between the UAR and Saudi Arabia over Yemen has subsided as a result of an agreement between Nasser and Faisal in August of 1965, Yemen will probably remain a bone of contention between the two Arab countries for many years to come. The advent in Sanaa of a regime openly antagonistic to either Saudi Arabia or the UAR could spark renewed hostilities.

The United States has a long-standing and often-reiterated commitment to protect Saudi Arabia from foreign aggression. Behind this commitment lies our interest in the continued free flow of Saudi oil to Western Europe, the security of air transit facilities across the Peninsula, and the survival of a regime which is one of our best friends in the Middle East and a staunch foe of communism. We intend to remain true to this commitment. We must at the same time be cognizant of the danger of precipitate US military action in the Saudi defense which could ignite an explosion of Arab nationalist wrath against the Saudi monarchy and the United States as well. Consequently this paper stresses diplomatic action to forestall and arrest a UAR-Saudi conflict over Yemen and foresees direct US military intervention (except to evacuate American citizens) only in the most extreme contingency.

[Here follow the body of the paper and four annexes.]

1. Source: Department of State, NEA/ARP Files: Lot 69 D 547, Arabian Peninsula Political Affairs & Rel., 1965, Yemen-UAR. Secret. Drafted by Korn on December 23 and cleared by Symmes and Officer in Charge of Politico-Military Affairs in the Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Regional Affairs Colonel Billy W. Byrd.
2. Dated January 30, 1964 and entitled “Procedures for Anticipating Foreign Crises.” (National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, S/S-NSC Files: Lot 72 D 316, Master File of National Security Action Memoranda (NSAMs), 1961-1968, NSAM 277)
3. Not found.
4. Not printed.
5. Not found.