Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume XVIII, Near East, 1962–1963

139. National Intelligence Estimate⁰

NIE 30–63

Washington, January 23, 1963.

THE ARAB-ISRAELI PROBLEM

The Problem

To estimate present attitudes and future trends in the Arab-Israeli problem over the next few years.

Conclusions

A. Israel will probably retain its overall military superiority vis-?is the Arab states for the next several years. As long as the present balance of forces remains substantially unchanged, we believe that neither side is likely to initiate major hostilities. However, the possibility will remain that incidents growing out of such main points of friction as the Israeli-Syrian border and Israel’s diversion of Jordan waters could escalate into serious fighting. (Paras. 17-19, 21–23)

B. In general, Israel will probably continue to pursue a hard policy demanding that any settlement be on the basis of essential maintenance of the status quo. Any easing of tensions in the Arab-Israeli quarrel rests primarily on the passing of time, developments in inter-Arab relations, and perhaps to some extent on the influence of the great powers. We believe that there is some chance that sufficient probing and pushing of the principals may in the next few years produce the beginnings of a refugee settlement. (Paras. 10, 34–36, 38)

C. [9-1/2 lines of source text not declassified] No Arab state will be able to develop a nuclear weapon capability for many years to come. (Paras. 24–29)

[Here follows the Discussion section of the estimate [text not declassified].]

0. Source: Central Intelligence Agency Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem. A table of contents is not printed. According to a note on the cover sheet: “The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, AEC, and NSA.” All members of the U.S. Intelligence Board concurred in this estimate on January 23, except the Assistant Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who abstained because the subject was outside his jurisdiction.