81. Telegram From the Embassy in the Soviet Union to the Department of State0
187. Re Schnippenkoetter’s statement to Ambassadorial Group meeting that Khrushchev’s threat to Austrians to cut Allied military access to Berlin was new, wish point out Khrushchev on previous occasions has made clear this Soviet intention, although perhaps not so explicitly.1
I agree that serious crisis over Berlin unlikely before late fall although gradual buildup of tension probable. Timing may be related to next round Soviet atomic tests as they may hope soften up Western position by exploding large bomb. I have not changed my views on probable course of developments Berlin question, namely: increased tension; at some stage serious attempt negotiate with US which probably unsuccessful; direct approach to West Germans, also unsuccessful; signature of peace treaty but with some steps to avoid or at least reduce danger of military conflict. At some stage along way, consider play for summit conference or bilateral meeting with President Kennedy likely. I find difficult to assess reasons for Khrushchev’s publicly emphasizing issue of troop withdrawal. He must surely know our position is firm and while possible he is building this up for bargaining purposes it does not seem reasonable that he would wish further to commit his personal prestige which already deeply engaged. I am more inclined to think he considers successful negotiations impossible and is building up his position for signature of treaty.
Am inclined think Soviet position on test ban may have changed in recent months in manner to make possibility agreement more likely. Believe possible Soviets may have concluded that in view strain on their resources continuation of competition in this field more likely to result in breakthrough by us than by them. They would in any event insist upon further Soviet round of tests before agreement became effective.