Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume XI, Cuban Missile Crisis and Aftermath

338. Draft Memorandum Prepared by the Office of National Estimates of the Central Intelligence Agency⁰

Washington, May 13, 1963.

SUBJECT

• Developments in Cuba and Possible US Actions in the Event of Castro’s Death¹

SUMMARY

We believe the odds are that upon Castro’s death his brother Raul or some other figure in the regime would, with Soviet backing and help, take over control. However, there is a good chance that a power struggle would ensue, and a lesser chance that such a struggle would spread, either into a many-sided conflict or with the Moscow-oriented Communists lined up on one side and those who are essentially Cuban nationalists on the other. In any case the loyalties of the military commanders, now committed to Fidel but probably divided after his death, would significantly influence the outcome. Anti-Moscow Cuban nationalists would require extensive US help in order to win, and probably US military intervention.

[Here follows the 12-page discussion portion of the memorandum.]

0. Source: Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Meetings and Memoranda Series, Standing Group Meeting, 5/28/63. Top Secret; Controlled Dissem. According to a covering memorandum from Sherman Kent to McGeorge Bundy, May 13, while this memorandum was a “draft” at Bundy’s instruction, it “represents our best and most careful effort in the time available. A number of knowledgeable people from parts of the Agency other than the Office of National Estimates participated.”
1. This memorandum is a general analysis of the situation and prospects for US action after Castro’s death. We have not sought to work out in detail Latin American, Western European, or other third party reactions in the various contingencies adverted to in our examination of the problem. In paragraph 13 we consider very generally the problem of Soviet reactions. [Footnote in the source text. Paragraph 13 stated that the Soviet Union’s interest in Cuba would not be lessened by Castro’s death, but it would react cautiously behind the scenes to influence events if a power struggle developed. If the struggle reached open conflict or the United States intervened, the Soviet Union would have to act. Such potential action was outside the scope of the paper.]