Office of the Historian

255. Memorandum From the Director of the Vietnam Working Group (Kattenburg) to the Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs (Hilsman)1

Washington, August 15, 1963.

SUBJECT

  • GVN Progress in Struggle Against the Viet Cong During First Six Months 1963

REFERENCE

  • Saigon 203, August 102

Reftel provides an excellent, thorough, very detailed account of progress made by the GVN in the struggle against the Viet Cong during the first six months of 1963. The most important aspects of the progress made are as follows:

Population: MACV estimates GVN effectively controls 6,766,000 as of July 1, 1963, increase of 966,000 over July 1, 1962. (Total population SVN approximately 14.8 million.) GVN has predominant control of 3.5 million, decrease of about 100,000. Under neither GVN nor VC control, about 600,000, increase of 489,000. Viet Cong controls about 700,000, decrease of over 400,000. Viet Cong has predominant control over 1,000,000, decrease of almost 700,000. Overall, changes reflect shift of population into GVN effective control category at more rapid rate than a shift of territory into GVN effective control category.

Villages:GVN effectively controls 939 villages as of July 1, 1963, an increase of 80 over July 1, 1962. GVN has predominance in 741 villages, an increase of 41. Neither GVN nor VC control 148, an increase of 114. VC controls 341 villages, a decrease of 113. Viet Cong has predominance in 375 villages, a decrease of 47.

VC Attacks: The VC was responsible for 6929 incidents of all kinds during the first six months of 1963, compared to 10,270 during the first half of 1962. VC attacks dropped by 36% and the scale of attacks also declined. ARVN forces, during the first six months of 1963, inflicted casualties on the VC at a somewhat higher rate than during the first six months of 1962. Although weapons losses by GVN forces continue to be a problem, improvement has been noted on a statistical basis, and greater proportion of ARVN weapons losses occurred during a few [Page 569] well-conducted actions on the part of the VC. In contacts with VC forces the GVN forces continued to show improvement in offensive capability.

  1. Source: Department of State, Vietnam Working Group Files: Lot 67 D 54, POL-1, General Political. Secret. Drafted by Conlon.↩
  2. Telegram 203 contained the summary highlights of the Embassy’s Task Force Weekly Progress Report. (Ibid., Central Files, POL 2 S VIET)↩