235. Letter From the Counselor of the Embassy in Japan (Morgan) to the Director of the Office of Northeast Asian Affairs (Parsons)1
Dear Howard: We have read with interest IR No. 7531 entitled “Main Currents in Japanese Political Affairs.”2 It is a well-written report and includes a lot of meat, but it strikes us that the general tenor is somewhat over-optimistic. On the whole the report seems to give the impression that Kishi’s position is very strong and that the prospects for a fairly long Kishi tenure are correspondingly good.
Our feeling is that Kishi is only now approaching his real testing period and there are several elements of danger in his position. He is facing several difficult problems, including the labor question which is extremely delicate, an economic situation which is still uncertain, and a precarious balance of factions within the LDP itself. Kishi’s personality has not taken hold on the great mass of the people despite his efforts to build a “Kishi boom.” Judging from the present situation it is not at all certain that the conservatives will be able to increase substantially their total of Lower House seats in the next general elections. It may even be that they will lose a few.
While the conservative position has been somewhat overdrawn in the OIR report, it also seems to us that the vote-getting ability of the Socialists has been underestimated. We feel it is rather dangerous to assume Socialist internal difficulties automatically mean a dilution of their strength in outlying areas where national issues are often of little concern and Socialist unity is relatively greater.
Thus in general we fell that there is no reason for complacency in the situation here and that Kishi will need whatever assistance he can get from us to maintain his position.
I enclose a copy of this letter for our friends in DRF. We aren’t trying to start a controversy, but thought both NA and DRF would like our reactions.
Best regards to all.
Sincerely,