Office of the Historian

294. Annex to Watch Committee Report No. 3221

SC 05674/56
Washington, October 3, 1956

CONCLUSIONS ON BRITISH-FRENCH INTENTIONS TO EMPLOY FORCE AGAINST EGYPT

Anglo-French military action against Egypt in the immediate future is unlikely.

Note: In view of the preponderance of indications that the UK and France do not intend to resort to force at this time, the Watch Committee suspends publication of the Annex with this issue. The Watch Committee will continue to examine the Suez situation and will resume publication whenever events require.

The following are the more significant factors considered by the Watch Committee in reaching its conclusion:

1.
The willingness of the UK and France to submit the Suez question for UN action, which is likely to be protracted, although they continue to reserve the right to an ultimate use of force.
2.
The apparent release of the British 3rd Infantry Division from its standby alert and its return to home station; the division’s equipment, however, remains loaded on board ship.
3.
The absence of any further build-up of British-French air or ground strength on Cyprus.
4.
The decreasing likelihood of Egyptian acts of violence against British or French persons or property which could provoke UK-French use of force.
5.
The continuing efficient Egyptian operation of the Canal, diminishing the likelihood of a major interruption in traffic which could be used to justify UK-French military intervention.
6.
The absence of any evidence of British-French intentions to act against Egypt through Israel, despite various reported rumors to the contrary.

  1. Source: CIA Files. Top Secret; Noforn; Limited Distribution.↩