26. Telegram 368 to Geneva1
368. For Ambassador Johnson.
Preliminary G–2 study August 2 estimates Chinese Communists have present capability utilizing air superiority over Nationalists in Taiwan Straits to: (1) participate in joint operations to seize and hold offshore islands; and (2) destroying Nationalist Air Force in all-out air war in which US did not intervene. G–2 further estimates when present airfield construction and stockpiling completed Communists will have capability—unless US intervenes—of: (1) denying effective Nationalist air reconnaissance of the mainland; (2) protecting coastal shipping; (3) establishing practical control air space over Taiwan Straits thereby rendering Nationalist occupation offshore islands untenable; and (4) subjecting Taiwan to prolonged air siege.
G–2 study not coordinated with other intelligence agencies, except informally with Air Force at working level.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 611.93/8–455. Secret; Special Handling Required—No Distribution to Foreign Nationals. Drafted by Colm; cleared in substance by Moore (G–2) and Forman.↩