222. Memorandum From the Director of the Office of Philippine and Southeast Asian Affairs (Young) to the Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs (Robertson)1
SUBJECT
- General Problems in Vietnam and Southeast Asia.
I wish that I could have a full three quarters of an hour with you some time this week to go over a number of troublesome emerging problems in Southeast Asia. It would also be helpful for me if we could take a broad look at the area in terms of what we have been trying to do during the past year, where we stand today, and where we are going. I have asked each of the Officers in Charge in PSA to analyze their countries in this way.
In particular, Vietnam is entering another “crisis” period. The question of Vietnamese elections is beginning to boil over. The Viet Minh is threatening retaliation. Diem is defiant, and with much reason. There is a better than even chance that it will come to a head during the summit meetings, and may even be brought to Geneva. The overlap between the Geneva meetings before and after July 20 and the significance of that date in the Geneva Accords practically begs the issue. Even Communist publicity is now adding the party line that there must be strict adherence to the Geneva Accords in Viet-Nam. If the Vietnamese Government has not responded in any way to some form of consultations beginning on or after July 20, I think you should be prepared for a serious diplomatic problem.
The most difficult possibility would be a Soviet motion at the summit or elsewhere to reconvene the Geneva powers to arrange for Vietnamese elections and bring the two parties together. Such a conference might also be asked to take up US military assistance to Cambodia and the problem of the two northern provinces in Laos. Thus, there are three major issues. If the Russians press for some action on the Vietnamese elections question, it may be difficult for the French and the British to resist. The visit of Ho Chi Minh to Peking and Moscow is certainly timed to this issue.
Meanwhile there is nothing but drift, indecision and confusion on our side. The Vietnamese are completely negative and may create an impasse. The British are worried and want something done. The Viet Minh and the Vietnamese will not talk to each other. It is a messy situation. I would suggest that we reconsider four-power consultations in Saigon with Diem as soon as the French have an Ambassador [Page 478] there. I do not believe this has to be at the ministerial level. I think we should consider immediately proposing to Reinhardt that he make this suggestion to his colleagues and to Diem. In any event, I think we have to continue bolstering Diem’s position to offset the world press that Ho is getting from his trip. Consultations in Saigon would help do this.
In general, we are conducting a tremendous amount of activity throughout Southeast Asia. Most of it has some good immediate effects. But I am more and more uncertain of the outcome in the long run. There are disturbing trends in every one of the eight areas in Southeast Asia.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 751G.00/7–555. Secret.↩