794.5/11–652: Telegram
No. 611
The Ambassador in Japan (Murphy) to the Department of State
priority
1475. Deptel 1125, October 30, Embtel 1436, November 3.1FEC recommends following build-up rate Japanese Defense Forces through US fiscal year 1954 as feasible and desirable: (1) Ground Force: 180,000; (2) Sea Forces: 18 frigates, 50 landing craft, 40 mine sweepers, personnel ceiling 13,500, related base facilities, training installations; (3) Air Force: Technical and flying training schools, two fighter squadrons F–86 type, one air depot wing, service and support units.
Estimated dollar-yen costs follow:
US funds: Ground Forces 147.1 million dollars; sea 2.2; air 287.1; total 436.4. US support for ground forces US fiscal year 1954 estimated 371.3 million in addition to 304.4 (expended and to be expended) for present forces through US fiscal year 1953 equals total 675.7 minus 528.6 already allocated equals 147.1 (This figure does not provide for procurement of long lead-time items for further expansion which can be determined only by DA.) Air Force estimates embraces phased program through June 1956 but 287.1 US funds recommended for allocation during US fiscal year 1954 because approximately two year lead time on procurement; phased program embraces following by June 1956: 2,500 technical and 300 flying graduates annually, three fighter interceptor wings F–86 type, one fighter interceptor wing as F–89 type, two fighter bomber wings F–86 type, one tactical reconnaissance wing, two air transport wings, two air depot wings.
[Page 1352]Jap Government funds: Ground Forces 125.8 billion yen; Sea 13.7; Air 58.5; total 198.0. Allowance for expected carry-over from Jap fiscal year 1952 budget of 38 billion for Ground Forces reduces total required appropriation Jap fiscal year 1953 for support Jap Forces to 160 billion.
General expenditure categories follow: US funds for Ground Forces: Initial equipment 182 million; spare parts 48; replacement through normal attrition (3 percent) 5.5; ammunition 93; transportation charge 39, etc. Total 371.3 (plus unknown amount for long lead-time procurement).
Jap Government funds for Ground Forces; fixed expenses (pay allowances, food, travel, utilities, etc.) 28.2 billion yen; equipment (T/E and T/A, clothing, coal, POL etc.) 63.6; construction 34.
US funds for Sea Forces: Small arms, gunnery training, ammunition, armament for minesweepers 1 million dollars; training aids, minesweeping gear, officer indoctrination training, training small number aircraft pilots and aircraft maintenance personnel plus six planes for training purposes under 500,000 dollars; armament for certain patrol vessels 700,000 dollars.
Jap Government funds for Sea Forces (including 3.8 in current budget and 4.5 in Jap fiscal year 1952 supply budget plus 13.7 in Jap fiscal year 1953 budget): Pay and allowances 4.0 billion yen; operation of vessels 5.8; shore facilities 1.7; construction of minesweepers 2.2.
US funds for Air Force: Aircraft and equipment 273.8 million dollars; US fiscal year 1954 operating costs 13.3.
Jap Government funds for Air Force: Construction 53.7 billion yen; land 1.2; US fiscal year 1954 operating costs 3.5; total 58.5.2
Same information US fiscal year 1955 sent shortly.
As Dept aware, Jap Government has failed expand NPR according time table agreed informally between Ridgway and Yoshida, being unwilling spend total defense funds appropriated current budget, and has been extremely reserved regarding rearmament policy, tacitly maintaining amendment of constitution is condition precedent to discussion of jointly agreed defense program specifying timetable of expansion and relative contributions of Jap Government and US. FEC agrees Jap Government may conclude that expansion to 180,000 with heavy equipment is possible prior to constitutional amendment.
FEC considers should not continue provide equipment to Jap Security Forces without written commitment from Jap Government to expand Jap Forces at agreed rate. Prior to receipt reftel, Embassy-FEC Committee proposed draft an agreement regarding military assistance to Japan for approval by State and Defense before negotiations undertaken with Jap Government. Proposed agreement would embody Jap Government and US obligations to meet agreed expansion program with Jap Government commitment to take necessary [Page 1353] measures to meet obligations assumed by Jap Government, including constitutional amendment if and when deemed necessary to proceed with agreed timetable. Does Department desire such agreement with Jap Government be sought as necessary support for military assistance request to Congress? Obtaining written agreement prior January by no means certain.
Summary follows Jap budget problem:
Total expenditures 853 billion yen current budget probably be increased to approximately 900 billion by supplemental budget. Liberal Party committed to tax reduction approximately 120 billion to which no Diet opposition. Therefore, would probably unbalance budget if total expenditures increased to cover added defense appropriation.
Following additional non-defense expenditures must be budgeted Jap fiscal year 1953 (broad estimates): Prewar bonded debt service 14 billion; GARIOA settlement 11 billion (German basis); plus undetermined expenditures for reparations, economic development and assistance to war bereaved. In view tax reduction and inevitable increase in non-defense expenditures, increased defense appropriation possible (with balanced budget) only by reducing normal expenditures. This would mean principally reducing government personnel which is extremely unpopular. Repeated determined efforts this direction have been largely fruitless. Would be highly dubious urge Jap Government undertake such unpopular move in addition to political burden of advocating rearmament. I anticipate Jap Government will strenuously resist increasing defense appropriations above present 3.6 percent of national income (approximately 21 percent national budget) 185 billion yen for Jap fiscal year 1953. Build-up rate recommended above calls for Jap Government funds 160 billion yen (excluding carry-over) in Jap fiscal year 1953. [Garble] 65 billion for support US Forces make total 225 or 4.5 percent of national income. In this context, possibility mentioned reftel additional expenditure by Jap 50 to 100 million dollars for US equipment and supplies appears improbable under present circumstances.
It is planned to have a thorough discussion of program with Prime Minister Yoshida as soon as new Jap Government organizational phase over.