120.251G/11–1654: Telegram

The Chargé in Vietnam (Kidder) to the Department of State

top secret
priority

1841. Repeated information Paris 606. Limit distribution. From Collins. Re Deptel 1939.1

1.
During discussion with Ely fifteenth (Embtel 1830),2 he made point it was necessary reach US–French agreement with respect to general, not merely military, policies for Vietnam. In this connection he wished particularly know US attitude toward elections scheduled for 1956. He pointed out that clause in Geneva Accord providing for elections is not clear as to whether these are to be held separately in each zone or are to be countrywide. Ely expressed view that while countrywide elections would result in Viet Minh victory, separate balloting might save Free Vietnam.
2.
I replied I did not know what US position is regarding elections, but I was aware of US fear that single countrywide election would deliver country to Viet Minh. Ely said he thought we should take no steps publicly indicating opposition to elections. I gave him my present personal thought we should work on assumption that elections north and south would be held separately and on basis as widely divergent as possible and under such conditions as to offer reasonable chance of winning.
3.
Ely said Viet Minh forces are, and will remain, stronger than those available to him. If Viet Minh become aware they may not win entire country by elections, they may resort to aggression. Under circumstances, it might be wiser to work out modus vivendi between north and south covering particularly economic exchanges. Ely said he had insufficient forces to resist armed Viet Minh attack, and that he feared, moreover, Viet Minh might provoke revolution in south if it should appear National Government was becoming firmly established.
4.
Ely went so far as to say he believes Diem does not intend permit elections and that some French believe US is supporting Diem for that reason. I assured Ely we are not backing Diem for any such reason.
5.
I recognize this is delicate question but think it should be raised with Mendes if Department judges circumstances favorable. In any event, I request guidance as to whether I should continue hold to line as in page two above in further discussing this matter with Ely.
Kidder