796.00/3–653: Telegram
No. 329
The Ambassador in the Philippines
(Spruance) to the Department of State
2700. Embassy submits following estimate situation created by resignation Magsaysay: Manila and country seething with politics. Rumors, plans, charges, counter charges heard from all quarters. From this welter following trends appear to be developing in opinion Embassy …, US newsmen and other qualified observers.
Quirino appears to be champion Liberal Party despite admitted personal unpopularity and set-backs suffered recent months. He seems determined run again and his every move is calculated toward that end. However, with or without his permission there are several “boomlets”, which may be compounded of the aspirants ambitions as well as Quirino’s own desire have back door through [Page 529] which to escape, using bad health as very real excuse, if he reaches conclusion he cannot win. Romulo has been seriously mentioned, and according rumor he has been telephone Quirino. Other names are Perez and even Parades.1 Next after Quirino, Perez is believed to have best chance election, in view his intimate knowledge and control party, and dossiers on party members to prevent defections. Liberal convention date will presumably be set soon after Nacionalista Party convention April 12.
At moment Magsaysay boom is growing, and really impressive response received from all over country approving resignation, urging entrance Nacionalista Party and promising support and aid. Laurel and Recto have made such categorical statements supporting Magsaysay on several occasions that possibility their double crossing for Laurel waning but not entirely eliminated. Puyat, Delgado2 and Zulueta3 not committed to Magsaysay but say will support any Nacionalista Party candidate named by convention. Osias4 still in running for nomination and he may attempt block Magsaysay entrance to Party, but his support not believed widespread. Most observers opine his candidacy will need beating but not regarded as really serious.
Embassy and other observers believe if elections held now Magsaysay would almost certainly win, and that in long run his chances are more than good. Remains to be seen whether present boom will grow and develop into conflagration which will carry country with it eight months from now. In view strength Liberal machine and necessity Nacionalista Party maintaining initiative and impetus for long period, much hard work and organizing must be done by those responsible for his campaign. As Paredes told Embassy officer two weeks ago, early convention by NP may deprive Magsaysay of ammunition too early in fight, leaving Liberals chance to correct own mistakes, capitalize on Nacionalista Party errors timing and judgement, and perhaps pass legislation putting Liberals in strong position.
At present Magsaysay is remaining silent pending entrance Nacionalista Party, presumably in few days. His friends and backers state main objective now is assuring nomination, and all efforts being pointed toward victory at convention April 12. Little thinking or planning has been done in preparation for prolonged campaign, and lack of funds causing some concern. Campaign manager not yet named, but Tanada,5 Arsenio Lacson (Mayor of Manila) [Page 530] and Pelaez6 have been mentioned. Opinions and desires old line members of party such as Laurel, Recto will have to be considered in this connection, but this cannot be done until Magsaysay well in party and assured of nomination. Magsaysay himself does not appear to have any special favorites or cronies, and has not surrounded himself with any particular board of strategy. He will require expert advice and organizing ability among his immediate entourage in order offset his relative political naiveness and immaturity.
If nominated, Magsaysay’s campaign will presumably stress his youth and vigor, honesty, record as defeater of Huks and foe of Communist, his feeling for common man, need for a change in political party as well as new, young, and fresh outlook in national affairs. Campaign will also stress corruption, inefficiency of Quirino administration, lack of follow up on promises to people, lack of real implementation of policies recommended by Magsaysay to eradicate causes of Communism by improving conditions of masses. Important factor will be high regard felt for Magsaysay by US, and belief that he will be able obtain continued US support; conversely, Quirino’s failure accomplish many reforms promised US at time ECA/MSA agreement will not be neglected.
For their part, Liberals will probably stand on record of administration since Quirino took office. He will claim credit for eliminating Huks, opening lands to the landless, enhancing economic prosperity of country, obtaining $252 million in MSA aid from US, enhancing international stature of Philippines, and otherwise for doing everything possible to bring country along following devastation of war. Moreover, Liberals will attack Magsaysay for ingratitude toward Quirino, who made him; for political opportunism and for being over ambitious; for being young, impetuous and without experience; for diverting armed forces funds for EDCOR and similar projects allegedly designed to further political ambitions; for accepting at least one bribe in connection with a Chinese deportation case.
The campaign will undoubtedly be tough and dirty, with no holds barred. Despite Quirino’s admonitions to the Army March 4 to stay out of politics, and promises for clean elections announced simultaneously, possibilities for coercive action and fraud still strong. Strong rumor that Governor Osmena of Cebu will be appointed Secretary of Defense in some sort of deal involving his arch rival Cuenco. This move, despite Osmena’s personal friendship with Magsaysay, regarded with distrust in view unsavory reputation both Osmena and Cuenco and their willingness achieve political [Page 531] ambitions by any means. Also freely rumored that Governor Lacson of Negros Oriental will be reinstated; this would be interpreted by Embassy that Quirino determined to stop at nothing to ensure re-election.
As stated at outset hereof, Embassy and others believe main outlines of political situation to be as above. It will be important for Embassy and US people generally to refrain from taking sides in any way. We should at every opportunity assert our neutrality and express hope that come what may the elections in the Philippines will be free and honest, and devoid of coercion or fraud.