751.00/5–1251: Telegram
The Ambassador in France ( Bruce) to the Secretary of State 1
6910. With date of elections voted, a first look can be taken at electoral situation as it shapes up, even though officially the campaign is only to start 2 weeks from now. In actual fact, and particularly as far as Communists and De Gaulle are concerned, campaign has been in full swing for some time. Positions of other parties are also beginning to emerge more clearly.
Cardinal fact about the new law is that majorities can only be obtained, and Communists eliminated in the various depts, if non-Communist parties affiliate. De Gaulle decision not to affiliate (even though there might still be some minor exceptions by individual non-RPF deputies being allowed to run on RPF lists) means that majorities will be obtained in comparatively few electoral districts. (Min of Interior estimates only about 30 depts will have affiliated lists sweeping the entire ticket.) Thus new system, a hybrid between majority system and proportional representation, places special premium on effectiveness of affiliations that are still possible. These are being decided now and must be firm before end of next week. They will take place among parties between RPF and Communists.
De Gaulle’s decision to go it alone is of course entirely in keeping with RPF ideology. However, it not only will increase number of Communists over what they wld otherwise have been (effective affiliations might have virtually wiped out Communist representation), but it will also deprive him of fair number of seats for his own party. His strategy thus appears directed to secure greatest possible aggregate of Communists and Gaullists, rather than diminution [Page 391] of Communists and maximum representation of Gaullists. No indication yet that he will necessarily be successful in this strategy.
Communists on their part are to some extent playing into De Gaulle’s hands by picturing him as their only serious opponent. Duclos speech May 7 (Embtel 6819, May 92) and behaviour of Communists during yesterday’s debate appear to indicate that this is major point of their campaign strategy. By proclaiming themselves as only real enemies of De Gaulle (the other parties allegedly abetting him, wittingly or unwittingly), they no doubt hope to obtain further polarization of electorate, and sharpening of issues, and may attempt pose as possible eventual leaders of anti-Gaullist camp.
Between these 2 extremes, the other parties have been affected by these tactics. Rightists, for instance, who might have welcomed affiliation with De Gaulle, are being driven toward affiliations with the 3 principal third force partners. Thus after peasants and Independents decided to put up joint lists, the PRL moved closer and proclaimed Wed its willingness to form alliances with them. The Independent-peasant combination also commenced talks with the RGR, roof org to which the Radicals belong. Papers today announce “electoral union” between RGR and the new “national center of Independents and peasants”. Evaluation of effect of this union must await news of Radical reaction. The RGR does not necessarily commit Radicals, some of whom cannot affiliate with Socialists and Rightists at the same time and may be confronted with difficult choice.
Special importance attaches to Socialist and MRP positions. Latter at Party Congress last week came out not unexpectedly, in favor of affiliations on broadest possible basis, and former, who are holding Party Congress this weekend, responded quite favorably. Complete across-the-board alliances from PRL to Socialists are obviously impossible, however, because of local situations, notably religious question in western and eastern depts and of course because of econ issues. Principal question is how many MRP-Socialist affiliations will be possible and how far they can be extended to the right. So far, SFIO-MRP alliances appear confined almost exclusively to southern France, but coming weeks shld bring speeded up decisions for other areas.
There is no doubt that Gaullists and Rightists will show substantial gains in next elections, and the rightward trend in center of gravity of the Assembly (which has been noticeable for years) will no doubt also be reflected in windup of parliamentary business [Page 392] next week. Thus Radical position against “excessive” new taxes appears likely to win out when budget is voted, price stabilization will go out the window and Socialists and MRP will only get minor crumbs, possibly by way of adjustment of minimum wage scale for former and some minor adjustment of family allowances for latter.
One fact about election campaign as it unfolds, which is rightly remarked upon by observers, is comparative apathy of the electorate so far. There is undoubtedly considerable disgust with present assembly whose stature has not been increased by the protracted wrangles over electoral law and by its inability to pass necessary inflation-control measures. Getting out the vote, if this apathy continues, will probably be a major preoccupation of parties. Although protest vote for the extremes May 3 less affected than vote for other parties, there is no indication so far of prospect for landslide. As campaign unfolds, better appraisal of these aspects should become possible.