Foreign Relations of the United States, 1949, The Far East and Australasia, Volume VII, Part 2

894.00/1–2649: Telegram

The Acting Political Adviser in Japan (Sebald) to the Secretary of State

priority

Tokyo, January 26, 1949.

31. The following is General MacArthur’s official report covering the general elections held on January 23, 1949. Statistical summary of the general election, 23 January 1949.

1. Population: According to the ration [national?] census announced on 1 August 1948, the population of Japan was as follows: Male 39,365,452, female 40,851,444, total 80,216,896.

2. Voting age: The voting age figures (20 years and over) were given as follows: Male 21,046,824, female 22,941,823, total 43,988,647.

3. Registered voters: According to figures of the national election management commission, the registered voters in Japan on 23 January 1949 totalled 42,090,916, divided as follows: male 20,054,142, female 22,036,774, total 42,090,916.

4. Number of candidates: The number of candidates registered by the various political parties, according to the national election management commission, follows: Democratic Liberal Party 416, Democratic Party 212, Social Democratic Party 186, Peoples Cooperative Party 63, Social Renovation Party 30, New Liberal Party 12, Japan Farmers Party 16, Farmer-Labor Party 45, Communist Party 115, Independent 211, minor parties 58, total 1,364.

5. Total votes cast: At 1800 hours on 23 January 1949, when the polls closed, a total of 31,168,625 votes had been cast in the general election for members of the House of Representatives. This represented a turn-out of 74.1 percent of the total 42,090,916 registered voters.

6. Election results: Tabulated according to political parties, the results of the general election were as follows: Party—total valid votes—number elected—percent. Democratic Liberal 13,381,610; 264; 43.8. Democrat 4,835,504; 68; 15.8. Social Democrat 4,129,724; 49; 13.5. Communist 2,984,583; 35; 9.6. Peoples Cooperative 1,042,123; 14; 3.4. Labor-Farmer 606,744; 7; 2.0. Social Renovation 387,214; 5; 1.3. New Liberal 187,208; 2; 0.6. Japan Farmer 232,833; 1; 0.8. Minor parties 795,308; 9; 2.6. Independent 2,007,328; 12; 6.6. Totals 30,590,179, plus invalid votes 578,446, total 31,168,625; 466; 100.0.

7. New faces in the Diet: 192 of the members of the House of Representatives are “new faces” elected for the first time; 243 were re-elected, and 31 were members of former Diets. Following is tabulation by party: party; new; re-elected; former; total. Democratic Liberal 121; 125; 18; 264. Democrat 23; 39; 6; 68. Social Democrat 6; 40; 3; 49. Communist 28; 4; 3; 35. Peoples Cooperative 0; 14; 0; 14. Labor-Farmer 0; 7; 0; 7. Social Renovation 1; 4; 0; 5. New Liberal 0; 2; 0; 2. Minor 2; 7; 1; 10. Independent 11; 1; 0; 12. Totals 192; 24; 31; 466.

8. Women in the election: A total of 44 women candidates ran for seats in the House of Representatives, of these 12 women were successful.

A. Women candidates according to political parties: Democratic Liberals 5; Democrat 8; Social Democrat 9; Peoples Cooperative 1; Social Renovation 1; New Liberal 0; Japan Farmer 0; Labor-Farmer 1; Communist 3; Independent 14; minor parties 2; total 44.

B. Women elected according to parties: Party; number. Democratic Liberals 2; Social Democrat 5; Social Renovation 1; Communist 3; Labor-Farmer 1, total 12.

9. Eminent political personalities who failed in the election: Sadayoshi Hitotsumatsu, Democrat (former welfare minister); Tetsu Katayama, Social Democrat (former Prime Minister); Kanju Kato, Social Democrat (former labor minister); Shizue Kato, Social Democrat (feminist leader); Tetsuo Kudo, Democratic Liberal (former state minister); Kasuo Nagae, Social Democrat (former agriculture and forestry minister); Suehior Nishio, Social Democrat (former state minister); Kazuo Nomizo, Social Democrat (former agriculture and forestry minister); Wataru Narahashi, Democrat (former chief cabinet secretary); Giichi Takeda, Democrat (former welfare minister); Eiji Tomiyoshi, Democrat (former communications minister); Haruye Yamashite, Democrat (involved in “Izumiyama incident”).

Analysis of election: The election was a smashing conservative victory. It gave practical assurance that the government would remain unchanged for the next four years, with a decisive mandate to one political party controlling a safe majority of the Diet seats. The most impressive result of the election was the gain of 112 seats by the Democratic-Liberal Party—to a lesser degree the sharp reduction in the Socialist strength from 143 seats in the 1947 election to 49 seats resulting from the present election, and the Communist gain of 31 seats. Although even with such gain the Communist Party, in a strong one-party government, has not even a legislative bargaining position.

The Democratic-Liberals drew their increased strength from the Democrats, the Peoples Cooperatives and probably to some extent from other smaller groups with conservative leanings, while the Communists drew theirs almost entirely from the left-wing Socialists, a development long anticipated. The extent of Communist gains from this source is largely reflected in the reduction of 28 in the Socialist left-wing representation from its pre-election strength. Both the Democratic-Liberal and Communist parties garnered strength from the disrepute into which the center parties had fallen as a result of the scandal investigations, which each vigorously exploited.

The Democratic-Liberal Party campaigned effectively, urging voters to support a strong single party qualified to lead the nation during the period of economic rehabilitation ahead, stressing the weaknesses resulting from past ineffectual coalitions. The Party pledged itself to eliminate unnecessary economic controls, to reduce government personnel, to eliminate the sales tax, and to adopt measures which would stimulate the introduction of foreign capital.

The Communist Party was benefited by external circumstances peculiarly advantageous to the party. Developments in China, for example, were exploited by the party, which insisted that only a Communist Japan could live profitably in harmony with a Communist China. Chiang Kai-Shek’s sudden retirement on the eve of the election gave dramatic support to the Communist campaign propaganda. Communists also won support by their promises to ease food collection requirements and eliminate taxes of lower income groups as well as their attacks upon the economic stabilization program of the government. The Radical elements in the ranks of labor gave strong support to Communist candidates not because of ideological preference but by way of protest against the ineffectual labor support of the Socialist Party and fear of suppressive measures affected by the influence of the hundreds of thousands of Japanese servicemen intensively trained in Soviet indoctrination centers prior to their repatriation.

In assessing the extent of the Conservative victory, it is necessary to take account of the support accorded the slightly more moderate but essentially conservative Democratic Party and the smaller conservative groups and individuals with conservative tendencies, all of which add up to over 75 percent of the total number of seats in the House of Representatives. Four successful independents have already formally announced their intention to join the Democratic Liberal Party.

The Communist gain, under existing extraordinarily favorable conditions, should reflect the high water mark of its political support, unless conditions alter even more in its favor. The danger should not be discounted, however, from the unrealistic and undue over-emphasis which will undoubtedly be given the Communist political strength through ill-conceived propaganda efforts to be expected from Moscow and elements of American journalism or individuals either irresponsibly inclined or directly within the orbit of Communist sympathy. Such propaganda, especially any from seemingly reliable and responsible quarters, may be expected to be fully exploited by the local Communist Party in the uncensored Japanese press.

General MacArthur’s comment on the election:

The Supreme Commander issued the following statement on 24 January:

“Peoples of the free world everywhere can take satisfaction in this enthusiastic and orderly Japanese election which at a critical moment in Asiatic history has given so clear and decisive a mandate for the conservative philosophy of government.”

Sebald