The Ambassador in Paraguay ( Warren ) to the Secretary of State
55. Deptel 7, February 7. Following submitted:
Embassy in survey situation and recommendations to Department guided by:
- Consideration seriatim subversion Governments Peru, Venezuela, Salvador, Paraguay through military coup elected presidencies.1
- Present Paraguayan Government result military coup.
- Likelihood military dictatorship will emerge from provisional governments.
- New government has promised elections but indications already are Rolón considering delaying them indefinitely.
- González accession at least paid lip service to electoral process but Embassy believes Rolón may avoid such tribute.
- Brazilian Ambassador gave confidential personal opinion to me Brazil and Argentina resumed relations Paraguay because their special geographic and other relations with her.
- Embassy’s conviction Argentine Ambassador wanted immediate recognition order recoup ground lost by his government his opposition González and Minister Foreign Affairs O’Leary. Arriola now making gains his country and doubtless would be satisfied with a pro-Argentine dictatorship. Main reason Brazil resumed relations so quickly was that both Rolón and Canata are notoriously pro-Brazilian.
- Belief Brazilian Ambassador and Brazilian Military Attaché that Rolón Government due become military dictatorship.
- Recognition by USA of present regime will enable it convert itself into military dictatorship thus set Paraguay back 100 years in democratic process.
- Paraguay’s travail is pathetic but its people have suffered and can still endure much. She is learning first steps democratic process. If she now reverts dictatorship her recent suffering will be for naught. Later, if she to be democratic, she would have start all over again.
- Belief USA delay for two months until Rolón hold elections would not hurt Paraguay.
Now referring Department’s five factors seriatim comments follow:
- See d and e above.
- González is out of picture. Rolón government not as popular today as was January 31. Our support of elections would make military dictatorship more difficult to achieve.
- Fight already on eliminate Molas2–Rodríguez group from Cabinet. If that be successful Embassy doubts Demo-Colorados [Page 749] would be match for military. Granted observance constitutional procedure in cases Frutos, Rolón similar, nevertheless threat military dictatorship did not exist case Frutos and Governments Peru, Venezuela Salvador had not fallen.
- See f, g above.
- Until USA resumes relations Rolón Government has poor chance succeed. Paraguayans generally recognize USA help essential for recuperation this country.
Comments: Embassy awaits Department’s decision and will comply fully immediately.