125.7146/6–1448
The Consul General at Peiping (Clubb) to the Ambassador in China (Stuart)56
Sir: I have the honor to refer to the Department’s circular airgram of April 6, 1948 entitled “Plan for Emergency Action”, and, in accordance with the instruction contained therein, to enclose in memorandum form57 a “Plan for the Evacuation of American citizens from Peiping, China”. That plan was prepared in main by Consul Joseph I. Touchette in consultation with members of the office of the Assistant Military Attaché at Peiping.
The plan as drawn up is designed to cover general situations envisaged in prospect. It is almost certain that events in North China will take a form containing elements at present unforeseen and that therefore, in the execution of the plans forwarded herewith, some current adjustments will have to be made. It is to be noted in particular that it may be found desirable to render assistance to those nationals of friendly Powers who may be resident in Peiping and may desire to avail themselves of any facilities for evacuation in time of crisis. It is to be noted nevertheless that, as things stand at present, there is no considerable trepidation or strong move toward removal from Peiping of either American citizens or nationals of other Powers.
It may perhaps be helpful, in viewing the present plan, to note the present factors which seem to have pertinency:
- (1)
- There are many imponderables in the Chinese scene in both the political and military situation and in respect to economic matters as well, and the shape of things to come is very difficult to forecast. For the present, however, a forecast of continued political deterioration seems warranted.
- (2)
- Many of the troubles now present in China, and many of those now forecast, however, have happened in this country at other times before. Going back no farther than the beginning of the present century, it is requisite to note that there has been the Boxer Rebellion (and this office has thought it appropriate in formulating its hypotheses to include the possibility of the development of another anti-foreign movement in China), and the subsequent Chinese revolution itself. There have been long periods of trouble under the warlords and then, in 1932 and 1937, Japanese incursions into this country, which brought in their train considerable disorder. The present strife between the Communists and the Nationalists, in fact, has a history dating from 1927 to the present time—and of course the history of the Kuomintang-Chinese-Communist-Party relations goes back to 1924. If the present disorder has in it perhaps new elements, it has [Page 839] in it many of the old elements as well, and it is felt appropriate to note that during all its periods of disorder foreigners were present in China carrying on their activities—with varying degrees of success.
- (3)
- Something like the violence which attended the Boxer Rebellion and the Kuomintang-Communist excesses of 1927 may in fact happen again, but it seems generally agreed that the Chinese Communist armies in particular maintain a high degree of discipline and it seems quite possible that their occupation of urban centers, after the first fighting is over, may be without major threat of unrestrained violence. It is believed that it is well that the American official policy in present circumstances should be based upon the exercise of due care, but it is felt likewise that there should not be anticipation before the event of the exercise of unbridled Communist violence against foreigners—and particularly Americans—whom they may find in their path.
- (4)
- It is felt that the above observation bears particular weight in view of the apparent circumstance that the Chinese Communists are at the present time encountering various difficulties in both economic and political fields as they continue on with their program. The farther they go the more difficulties they will probably encounter, this particularly as regards the Chinese urban population. The extension of their conquests, in short, will make probable the necessity that they should avoid extreme policies in the immediate future. That probability would of course benefit the foreign populations in the areas which might be made subject to their impact.
- (5)
- In short, it is felt by this office that it is undesirable prematurely to start any time clock going in the anticipation of events which have not yet taken form. It is quite true that the political situation and the military situation in North China as well as in Manchuria continue to deteriorate and bear every promise of doing so in the months ahead. It is, however, true that in China political events frequently develop at a much slower tempo than in other countries. It is thought advisable at this time to communicate to American nationals either orally or by circular letter this Consulate General’s estimate that the political and military situation in North China as well as in Manchuria is continuing to deteriorate and that, with particular reference to the question of communications, those persons who might desire to remove either effects or their persons from Peiping prior to the development of a truly critical political situation would be well advised to take appropriate steps to that end while regular commercial transportation facilities are still available. This warning, in short, should at this stage be tied particularly, it is believed, to the problem of communications. It will be noted that this office has not proposed in its memorandum that anything resembling a mandatory evacuation should be undertaken under existing conditions, either for staff personnel, their dependents, or American nationals generally.
It is to be remarked, of course, that in these circumstances the evolution of a perfect plan is infeasible from the practical point of view. It will probably be found necessary, as time goes on, to make recommendations for new, at present unforeseen, action. This Consulate [Page 840] General will not fail to follow the situation closely and to make appropriate recommendations to the Embassy and the Department as the situation develops.
Very truly yours,