893.00/5–748: Telegram

The Consul General at Mukden (Ward) to the Secretary of State

195. Thus far no indication Communist superiority such as endanger Mukden in near future more than past offensives. Instead there is [Page 826] likelihood Mukden may be subject of feint and then by-passed, and thereafter continue existence relative peace until it withers on vine, which process may go on for months or even year or more unless process accelerated by large troop defections, Government collapse, or Communist seizure North China. Government will eventually lose Mukden unless effective efforts made toward its retention, but date such loss too remote to be determined with any reasonable certainty at present. Therefore unable concur in Embassy opinion (Embtel May 5 to Dept 813, Mukden 84) time has come evacuate Foreign Service dependents this post. Review reports this office past half year reveal we have with only insignificant error forecasted events faithfully. Have no desire prejudice safety any American, and at same time reluctant cause premature or needless separation families. Changchun dependents evacuated May 23 year ago, but Changchun still stands. Military Attaché34 withdrew dependents his establishments from Mukden in mid-January, and recommended to Embassy evacuation Mukden Foreign Service dependents mid-[apparent omission] but Mukden continues stand firm.

General Wei35 more confident today his ability hold Mukden than any time since arrival mid-January; understand US Navy Tsingtao stands ready send evacuation planes Mukden within 24 hours upon request. Inasmuch Mukden airfields on edge city and well within defense perimeter, no reason believe collapse Mukden will be so rapid as prevent arranging necessary outbound air lift. Major Singlaub, ESD, and Assistant Military Attaché Major Bradley concur my opinion.

Department not yet authorized payment per diem or other separation allowance evacuated dependents. Vice Consul Abbott unable support 2 establishments, one here for self and another elsewhere for wife and child. He prefers waive evacuation his dependents if allowance for their maintenance not payable. I therefore recommend issuance order for evacuation Mukdea dependents be withheld until need therefor apparent and requested by this office, or that blanket orders be issued now for execution on discretion this office in consultation with Embassy, and that no such order be mandatory unless allowances payable for separate maintenance of evacuees. In view dreariness present-day Mukden for anyone accustomed family life, I suggest that in making further assignments Mukden no married person be assigned here unless accompanied by family and continued presence family here appears reasonably certain.

  1. Brig. Gen. Robert H. Soule.
  2. Gen. Wei Li-hjuang, Commander in Chief of Northeast Bandit Suppression Forces.