893.00/11–2748: Telegram
The Consul at Tihwa ( Paxton ) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 29—12:29 a. m.]
116. Rumors from several sources indicate working arrangements with Ili expected to be reached promptly on SecGen Liu’s return next week if he obtains Central Government approval of terms negotiated with General Chang.
Plans appear to involve transfer from Sinkiang (perhaps to Szechuan) of most Central Government forces, leaving only soma 15,000 Hankow [Han] Province troops formerly under Sheng,43 in addition to Ma’s Tungan Fifth Cavalry Army. Evacuation will probably begin from Nanchiang posts east of Kashgar by southern road via Sining. Consultation on these movements would explain recent brief visit to Tihwa of Vice Garrison Commander from Kashgar. One military informant expects Central Government soon to cut off all funds for Sinkiang troops.
“Election” of Burhan44 as chairman in Mesud’s stead said to have been arranged, latter to take over province Kmt. This demotion may be cushioned by some funds passing through his hands. Ili group representation to be considerably increased at expense of Hankows [Hans] and much more autonomy given natives. Some predict Chang Chih-chung will become Minister of National Defense, being replaced in northwest by General Chu Shao-liang from Szechuan, will [well] liked by Muslims, after agreement among Turki, Chinese and Soviet representatives in negotiations with Ili leaders here.
That certain Muslim leaders are planning coup, unknown even to Russians, which would eject all Hankow [Han] military and civil officials in single drastic sweep, possibly bloody, and simultaneously give Burhan chairmanship is reported from Turki official source.
Similarity of both alleged projects strengthens probability of some early developments along these lines. Due growing Muslim fear of USSR, any change likely to begin peaceably. However, since [Page 753] suspicion of Sino-Soviet machination also common (mytel to Department 112, November 12, to be pouched Nanking), open hostilities might break out if Muslims feel need to forestall duplicity.
Some realignment clearly in the wind. Belief that supplies are soon to come from rich Ili valley (continued on [apparent garble] op. 570), former granary Fortzrim basin, is indicated by recent somewhat steadier food prices (except for tea, in great demand and short supply in dissident zones) and failure of Government to arrange normal winter grain storage here.
These frank comments to us by second level contacts, both Muslim and Chinese, imply cordiality and goodwill. Consulate accordingly might be respected by Muslims in event of disturbances resulting in their ascendancy; Chinese official protection and personal assistance appear likely to continue as long as possible.
Perhaps General Chang has been skillful enough to have arranged for “neutrality” or at any rate noninvolvement of Sinkiang even though Central Government may be at war with Soviet Union. Consulate might thus be able to carry on limited but useful functions temporarily despite turmoil in area.
Similar rumors received by British ConGen.
Sent Department 116, Department pouch Nanking.