893.00/12–3048: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 31—3:33 p. m.]
2667. Successful formation Sun Fo Cabinet does not promise to alter prevailing political trends. Agitation for peace both within and without Government is reaching crescendo, yet nothing can be done without assent Generalissimo. By virtue action National Assembly, Generalissimo holds emergency powers allowing him to make virtually all policy decisions. Cabinet can only advise and assist in implementing Generalissimo’s will. Thus as long as Generalissimo can exercise command over Nanking garrison and police, he has both de facto and de jure authority to continue war or adopt peace policy.
Various reports of impending retirement Generalissimo (our 2628, [Page 706] December 27; 2637, December 2886 and 2655, December 29) should not be taken as positive indication Generalissimo’s intentions in spite of fact he summarily removed Wu Ting-chang, his faithful Secretary General, and replaced him with Wu Chung-hsin solely because of latter’s known ability as negotiator and for avowed purpose arranging retirement Generalissimo. In present deteriorating military situation it may be assumed that Generalissimo has given thought to peace as alternative to continued hostilities. He is under strong pressure to retire and it is conceivable that he may be persuaded to step aside or that Pai Chung-hsi whose troops now garrison Nanking may force his hand by coup d’état assisted by Chang Chun, Chang Chih-chung and those others demanding peace. His retirement from the scene is prerequisite any negotiations with Communists.
Principal motivation Governmental peace advocates appears that if Generalissimo retires Government can negotiate with Communists and considerable segment of present Kmt can be preserved as bloc in coalition government. This view strengthened by Li Chi-shen, December 20, Hong Kong press announcement which indicated present Government, less Generalissimo, would be recognized by Communists as having legal status as temporary government for purposes negotiation. However, in December 22 Reuters–AP Hong Kong story “spokesman for one of major groups of 10 anti-Chiang parties exiled Hong Kong” states Communists not prepared enter coalition government which would have representation from present Nanking regime. We reported our 2544, December 16 that Li Tsung-jen has man Hong Kong negotiating this point and it is possible that Li Chi-shen’s statement is result these negotiations.
However that may be, we consider it unlikely Communists will permit Kmt to enter coalition government as bloc, but will rather permit participation by individual Kmt members selected with care. As we see it, should Generalissimo be persuaded to retire or be forced out, Li Tsung-jen as leader of Government would seek through his proclamation to open negotiations with Communists. He has little with which to bargain, however, and we think it unlikely Communists will be willing treat with him except in terms amounting to unconditional surrender. Their military forces gathered north of Nanking and already moving to encircle the city are overwhelming. Proclamations promising safety and good treatment to technicians both within and without Government and precedent set in Tsinan and Mukden make it highly likely that sufficient Government and public utility officials would remain in their jobs to ease problem of running Government which will confront Communists. Even Kmt leadership is offered opportunity of getting off blacklist of war criminals or at [Page 707] least being permitted to survive, by proof of acceptable service to Communist victory.
Therefore, with anticipated refusal Communists to negotiate, with loss Generalissimo leadership should he have retired command, with deathblow to what remains of military morale in Government forces which would result from publicized effort to negotiate, we believe there is little likelihood that Government can continue to rally sufficient support to maintain resistance as a unit. It would be more likely to disintegrate, leaving the autonomous areas in the west and southwest to make their own accommodations with the Communists.
Central point in present situation remains, however, fact that Generalissimo has not yet taken final step to relinquish his control and that until he has done so, his opposition to communism will continue as heretofore. He has said that he would remove to Nanchang, then Canton, and Taiwan if necessary and that he would resort to guerrilla tactics if forced into it, but that he would fight the Communists unto death. Those insisting on peace may succeed in persuading him that he is harming the Chinese people by continued resistance, yet his deep conviction in the inhumanity of communism with the resulting oppression of the Chinese people may lead him to carry out his threat. It would certainly be a more glorious end and more in the traditional pattern than if he were meekly to step aside to spend his dying days in exile.
- Telegram No. 2637 not printed.↩