893.00/11–648: Telegram

The Ambassador in China ( Stuart ) to the Secretary of State 39

2117. We gathered together senior military personnel JUSMAG40 and Service Attachés, who, after discussing military situation, were unanimous that short of actual employment of US troops no amount of military assistance could save present situation in view of its advanced stage of deterioration. Ageing that employment US troops impossible, it was conclusion of group that there was no military step China or US could take in sufficient time to retrieve the military situation. It was agreed that Fu Tso-yi41 could not resist attack by forces which Communists can mass against him in North China, and that against Nationalist forces known to be of inferior caliber in Hsuchow area, Chen Yi42 could reach Yangtze River in vicinity Nanking in 2 weeks.

We reluctantly reach conclusion, therefore, that early fall present Nationalist Government is inevitable. It is too early to say with certainty whether that Government will be replaced by a Communist government or by a Communist-dominated coalition. In either event, we shall have to make the best of a bad situation and save what we can from the wreckage.

Embassy will remain Nanking unless developments indicate contrary course desirable, in which case Department’s instructions will be requested. Please pass to Hoffman, ECA.43

  1. Repeated as No. Telmar 136 to the Ambassador in France; copy transmitted to the White House on November 7 for President Truman.
  2. Joint U. S. Military Advisory Group.
  3. Commander in Chief of the North China Bandit Suppression Forces.
  4. Commander of the Chinese Communist armies in Central China.
  5. Paul G. Hoffman, Administrator of the Economic Cooperation Administration.