893.00/9–2248: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 22—5:26 a. m.]
1744. Past week has seen revival large-scale military activities in Manchuria, North China and Shantung Province with Communists resuming offensive. Between Mukden and Chinchow, Communist build-up now totals at least three columns. One column has attacked and isolated Ihsien, although Nationalists now in process restoring communications with this garrison. Coastal corridor between Chinchow and Chinwangtao has been cut in three places by Communists who have now been driven back to their bases in mountain range paralleling coast and railway communications have been restored. Communists retain capability to repeat raids on railroad. Their intentions in Chinchow area are still not clear. On basis present information it does not appear likely that they will attempt a reduction of large Nationalist concentration in this area although they may succeed in preventing any offensive cooperation between Fan Han-chieh and Wei Li-huang.20 Latter has informed Ministry National Defense that he will under no circumstances take offensive until present harvest completed in areas under his control.
Government forces yesterday claimed to have regained control of railroad between Kailan mines and Chinwangtao, driving Communist forces totalling 1 division and 1 column from Changli. Eailroad has been badly damaged and will not be serviceable for coal shipments for some time. In this area Communists retain capability further disrupt railway traffic and will probably continue to do so.
Major Communist offensive is assault on Tsinan, involving employment of at least eight columns with assigned artillery. Nationalists have lost at least one full division and have now retreated within city wall. Large Communist forces are so disposed as to effectively block Government forces in Hsuchow area from relieving Tsinan. Fact that Chen Yi,21 Chu Teh,22 Mao Tse-tung,23 are all reportedly in general vicinity Tsinan and careful disposition Communists’ blockading [Page 468] force north of Hsuchow, together with weight of Communist assault indicates seizure of Tsinan is major Communist objective (local press report today alleges this all-out effort is because Communists intend use Tsinan as site their puppet government). There is little hope that defending garrison can resist for long.
On complete reduction Tsinan, it appears likely that Communists will commence offensive against Hsuchow area. As presently disposed, Communist Army north of Lunghai railroad can hold down Government forces stationed from East to West along that line or can compel their concentration in and about Hsuchow city. Such an operation would be facilitated by considerable Communist forces south of the Lunghai. Unless Government’s high command shows better generalship than has been case in past, it is reasonable to expect that within next few months, depending on Communist timetable, Hsuchow garrison will be isolated as was Tsinan.
Principal effect of loss of Tsinan by Government will be political and economic in character. Since city has been isolated it has had little if any military significance. In Communist hands it will, since it is a provincial capitol, be a political base of importance for consolidation of their control of Shantung. Also they will undoubtedly seize much material and some badly needed industrial potential. On other hand, Government will have again demonstrated its military weakness with a resultant further loss of popular confidence in its power to survive politically and economically.
Sent Department 1744, pouched Consulates China.