893.00/7–1648
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received August 11.]
Sir: I have the honor to submit the enclosed summary1 of our present information concerning the Kuomintang Revolutionary Committee under Marshal Li Chi-shen, now in Hong Kong.
According to the evidence of all reports and informed opinion, the present government of China is very likely to collapse or be removed from office before many months have passed. It is, however, by no means without considerable residual strength, which has been demonstrated in the easy containment of Li Tsung-jen since his election, just as the government’s weakness and people’s dissatisfaction with it were manifested in his election. Although the government’s vitality is easy to underestimate, there seems little doubt that the continuing onslaughts of financial and military catastrophe, together with its own inability to undertake the decisive reforms which might relieve the situation, will be the death of it sooner or later. And in the event of its demise, some regime or regimes must take its place.
Among the various alternative situations which can arise with the end of the present Kmt government, the most likely are: (a) Communist domination of all or most of China, especially if the Kmt holds out for some time yet but makes no major reform moves; (b) the appearance of regional governments; and (c) the replacement of the present CC-dominated Kmt by a freer, more popular, and more efficient national government able to maintain at least such nominal unity as presently exists in China. If either of the last two alternatives should materialize, the KmtRC is a factor which must be reckoned with more or less seriously.
In Marshal Li Chi-shen and Generals Feng Yu-hsiang and Ts’ai T’ing-k’ai, the KmtRC has well-known leaders whose personal influence may be expected to secure a good many military adherents if they set up a government on Chinese soil. The essential program of the group calls for land to the tiller, an immediate cessation of civil war, and a coalition government for all China. It will be noted that this coincides precisely with the present Chinese Communist line; [Page 365] and the KmtRC is not only working very closely with the energetic Hong Kong CCP representatives and their underground organization in Kwangtung Province, but also claims to have a basic understanding with the national Communist leaders. Nevertheless, Marshal Li and certain of his followers insist that their aims are fundamentally anti-Communist, that the present cooperation is merely a necessary temporary expedient, and that their program is the only one that can secure general popular support in China today.
Preparing for a coup d’état which has been generally outlined to United States officials, the KmtRC has been carrying on a program of intrigue within China to secure the allegiance of key figures in and out of the Gimo’s favor. These include such men as Lung Yun, Sun Lien-chung,2 Fu Tso-yi, Wang Yao-wu, Teng Hsi-hou, Yen Hsi-shan, Liu Wen-hui, and Ma Hung-kwei. Although Li Tsung-jen, as a Liang-Kwang Clique member, might logically be considered a natural adherent of the KmtRC, the question of his attitude towards the movement has not been settled. More surprising, Pax Chung-hsi and Chang Fa-kwei3 have not even been mentioned. Despite these omissions, Marshal Li has claimed that he has among Kmt military units and leaders a good-sized following which will rally to his standard as soon as it is raised.
Of course, nobody can tell finally who is going to support the KmtRC until that body makes an overt move to displace the present government. If the movement’s claims are well-founded, it may be able to effect the coup it is planning; if the present government merely collapses, the KmtRC may be a decided factor in the cluster of regional regimes that will probably result.
Respectfully yours,
Minister-Counselor of Embassy