893.00/3–1748: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 18—5:47 a. m.]
474. Communists continue to hold initiative and we regard defeats of Government armies during past week as indication Government military position gravely critical, with general military collapse in north becoming increasingly possible. In Manchuria, loss Kirin and Ssupinkai frees additional Communist forces for assault Mukden. In Shantung loss Tsinan highly possible. In Shensi [-Honan], loss Loyang likely and Government forces available for defense Sian considered inadequate. Shansi is faced with famine and in Hopei Communists threaten cut Pingsui railroad north Kalgan, isolating Government garrisons along western sector of line. Government forces are entirely committed to garrison duties and there are no visible reserves for relief of areas under attack. In most areas materiel shortages further weaken Government capabilities to continue defense. Troop attrition proceeds at rapid rate. Government has no time to train replacements for battle losses and new troops are reaching [Page 154] field commanders virtually untrained. While certain individual field commanders seem to have plans to stabilize situation in areas under their control for brief periods, they lack materiel to implement these plans. Also present Government leadership has apparently no overall plan organize and commit its few remaining resources in any effective manner.
In past week civil and military officials in Nanking and in the field are more uniformly and deeply pessimistic and depressed than we have hitherto seen them. In past they have been sustained by hope that effective American military assistance would be forthcoming. At present they are increasingly of opinion that military aid will likely be of such nature, and so hedged with conditions as to reform which cannot be met in present exigency, that it will not necessarily be efficacious. Thus, deprived of this encouragement, they tend increasingly in final analysis, to accept loss of civil war as probably inevitable.
We have previously reported, balance in military situation is rapidly turning in favor Communists and any large scale Government defeat can lead to general military collapse. We do not believe, however, that Government’s military situation is, as yet, entirely hopeless. Government still has resources in materiel and manpower which it has not succeeded in organizing and committing to the war effort. Its present leadership apparently lacks the ability to do so. We remain of the opinion, however, that our assistance in the organization of these resources plus our contribution of materiel to supplement them might still enable the Government to maintain itself. We remain also of the opinion, however, that assistance in terms of materiel alone can at most effect only a slight delay in the Government’s military collapse. We also believe that deterioration of the Government’s military position is accelerating and that the time when any assistance can be effective is rapidly running out. If Manchuria goes there is little hope of saving north China which is already riddled with Communist forces.