Foreign Relations of the United States, 1948, The Near East, South Asia, and Africa, Volume V, Part 2

CIA Files

Memorandum by the Director of Central Intelligence (Hillenkoetter) to President Truman ¹

secret

[Washington,] 8 July 1948.

IM–48

Since 15 May 1948 when the UK abandoned its mandate over Palestine, the Arabs and Jews have experienced four weeks of bitter hostilities and four weeks of uneasy truce. Neither war nor peace, however, has in any way weakened the determination of the Jews to establish a sovereign state of Israel or the determination of the Arabs to prevent the establishment of such a state. The period of hostilities led to a military stalemate; the truce has favored the Jews.

Count Bernadotte’s proposal that the Palestine truce be extended beyond 9 July has been accepted by Israel. The Arab states, on the other hand, have rejected it in view of Bernadotte’s refusal to adopt the Arab proposals (a unified Palestine with restricted Jewish immigration) as the only basis for further negotiations.^*

In the resumption of full-scale hostilities, the Jewish forces will probably attempt to consolidate their positions in the coastal area and Galilee and to gain control of Jerusalem. The Arabs will probably try to break the military stalemate which had developed prior to the truce. They will attempt to reimpose their blockade of Jerusalem by cutting the Tel Aviv supply route and will try to isolate Tel Aviv from the hinterland by making concerted advances with the Egyptian, Transjordan, and Iraqi Armies. The Syrian Army will probably launch a limited offensive in northeastern Galilee.

The success of the Arab campaign is doubtful in view of acute ammunition shortages. Unless the Arabs can force political concessions from Israel within the next two months, they will probably be compelled by logistic difficulties to withdraw most of their army units from Palestine. However, they can be expected to support guerrilla activities indefinitely. Arab guerrilla incursions, political non-recognition, and economic sanctions will completely isolate Israel from the rest of the Near East. Under such circumstances, its security will be continuously threatened, its economy stifled, and its future existence consequently will be entirely dependent on the continuing good will of some outside power or powers.

R. H. Hillenkoetter

MILITARY SITUATION–11 JUNE 1948 (On effective date of U. N. cease-fire order)

1. Attached to the source text is a CIA map entitled “Military Situation—13 June 1948”, which is reproduced facing this page.
2. Despite the resumption of hostilities, Arabs and Jews are expected to cooperate with the Mediator in the evacuation of UN personnel. [Footnote in the source text.]