831.00/11–2847
Memorandum by Mr. Richard H. Post of the Division of North and West Coast Affairs26
The attached memo27 from the Department of the Army indicates the possibility of the Venezuelan Army making a coup d’état and ousting Acción Democracia.
The Embassy, the Military and Naval Attachés have pointed out the possibility of such a coup in recent months.
Since AD is supported actively and devotedly by a vast majority of the populace (it expects 1,500,000 voters to register for the December 14 elections, in a population of between 4 and 4.5 millions.) and since the party is known to be armed, as stated in this memo, I fail to see how such a coup could be bloodless.
If the coup should be attempted and should lead to protracted civil war, it would seriously endanger oil production and installations.