823.61311/11–1747: Airgram
The Secretary of State to the Embassy in Peru
A–429. ReEmbs 786, October 31.78 The situation with regard to world export availability is no less grave now than when pictured in Department’s A–286 of July 16. In fact, a great reduction of the wheat crop in Canada and of the corn crop in the United States have greatly worsened the situation. The Secretary General of the International Emergency Food Council in a report of October 27 stated that “cereal production in Europe falls below 1946 by the equivalent of about 75 grams of bread per person per day for the entire 1947–48 cereal year” and “imports of cereals (for the world as a whole) would need to be six or seven million tons larger than they actually were last year just to maintain last year’s Spartan bread rations and restricted level of livestock feeding. Actually, export availabilities now appear to be no larger than last year’s shipments. It is inevitable, therefore, that either bread rations or livestock feeding, or both, will have to be reduced in many countries.”
Under these circumstances, it will be understood that there is greater need than ever for the United States to support low consumption levels in Europe, particularly in view of the European Recovery Program. The United States policy still pursued in allocations is not to make commitments beyond the monthly export programs announced publicly about five or six weeks in. advance. Importing countries are urged to secure, if at all possible, the supplies allocated to them by IEFC from sources other than the United States, in spite of greater cost, so that needs can be met as fully as possible. The policy with regard to Peru remains as before, namely, that, for your confidential information, the United States is prepared within IEFC recommendations to assist with shipments to that country on an emergency basis if grain is not forthcoming from Argentina or other sources and supplies in Peru run low.
Weekly reports received from our Embassy in Buenos Aires based on manifests of ships departures show movement from Argentina for Peru of 52,687 tons of wheat in the four months July to October. From the United States in the period July–September 18,000 tons of wheat and 7,000 tons of flour were shipped. This constitutes a total of about 78,000 tons within four months. Since 14,200 tons were shipped from Argentina in June, Peru must have had some stockpile in July 1. On the basis of stocks and imports as reported in Embassy’s report No. [Page 1043] 121 of June 12,79 disappearance of imports in the period January to May 1947 is calculated at about 11,000 tons per month, as compared to 8,000 during the period of lowest consumption in the spring of 1946. Embassy’s A–379 of June 979 also refers to 11,000 tons a month as the minimum monthly import requirement. At this rate of consumption shipments to Peru the first four months of the present crop-year would cover seven months’ consumption and stocks would become quite low by February 1948, if no further shipments were made in the meantime from Argentina.