893.00/3–347: Telegram

The Minister-Counselor of Embassy in China ( Butterworth ) to the Secretary of State

425. Following Changchun’s 76, March 1, 9 a.m.

“First phase of present Communist drive is apparently over. Changchun evidently safe from attack immediately. This was early indicated probably by failure Reds to try to cut Mukden rail line over which reinforcements are arriving here from south. With threat of danger to Changchun thus at present seemingly receded, Nationalists, with customary precipitation, have become confident of victory still unattained.

Communist logistical problems are considerable and how sustained offensive they can support is problematical. I believe in present drive, pattern of which has thus far followed fairly closely that of January, there may be introduction new strategic elements into second phase. An important factor indicated in Consulate’s telegram 74, 28th,91 is [Page 50] that Nationalists seem to have lost sight of bulk of Communists’ attacking force. Nationalists plan drive along railways north to Tehui and east to Kirin. There is northwest of Changchung admitted Communist concentration and east of Kirin another. I suggest possibility Communists instead of withdrawing again across Sungari may move on flank or in rear after Nationalist drive gets under way. Clubb.”92

Butterworth
  1. Not printed; it reported a press review of the military situation in Manchuria (893.00/3–147).
  2. O. Edmund Clubb, Consul General at Changchun.