Foreign Relations of the United States, 1947, The Far East: China, Volume VII

893.00/2–2847: Telegram

The Secretary of State to the Ambassador in China (Stuart)

Washington, February 28, 1947—5 p.m.

245. Prof. Peffer⁸⁰ Feb. 13 in speech before IPR⁸¹ at Washington made statements summarized below.

China’s internal situation is hopeless and future appears to hold only dissolution present Government and probable reversion to warlord or other regional regimes. Gmo probably well-intentioned but limited by his feudal background. Evil men surround Gmo leaving Govt’s modern-minded administrators powerless frustrated.

CCP unlike Kmt for time wanted peace but now also believes it has more to gain from continued hostilities. Its military power and numbers trained administrators insufficient however to control country in foreseeable future.

Chief hope for future is for US exert all possible pressure on Govt to force it reform. (End of Summary)

Former member Dem League now in US⁸² similarly asserts CCP incapable govern all China and its leaders too intelligent attempt doing so even should present Govt collapse. He inclines to think such collapse would result in establishment coalition Govt including CCP but dominated by Political Science group.

Dept would appreciate your comments particularly on predictions of reversion to regionalism together with résumé of any available info from Canton Chengtu Kunming and other provincial centers indicating whether disintegrative tendencies ordinarily present there are now gaining strength from current difficulties of Central Government.

Marshall

80. Nathaniel Peffer, of Columbia University, New York, N.Y.
81. Institute of Pacific Relations.
82. Chen Han-seng, an economist, who on February 19 gave his views to the Deputy Director of the Office of Far Eastern Affairs (Penfield).