893.00B/11–2647: Telegram
The Consul General at Mukden (Ward) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 1—8:09 a.m.]
367. Summary conditions Northeast following Communist sixth offensive:
Part 1. Military: Informed foreign observers and Chinese military officers believe main effort Communist sixth offensive has been spent. Difficult determine whether present lull with its small-scale activities [is] preparatory period for regrouping, etc., incidental to seventh offensive. No responsible Government official doubts ability Communists wage seventh offensive. Observers’ opinions vary as to when large scale operations will be resumed, one expecting heavy attacks December while others feel cold weather will preclude heavy attacks until immediately before spring thaws. In any event Government intelligence of Communist plans again ineffective and without information when or where next heavy blow will fall. Government has been weakened militarily by sixth offensive. Government openly [Page 379] admits 28,000 casualties but this figure believed very low. Can be assumed Government has only few more troops in Northeast now than at beginning sixth offensive even the 9 divisions reinforcements sent Northeast during past 2 months. Changchun sector being weakened by removal 2 divisions crack New First Army to Mukden area and replacement by green, poorly-equipped Fukienese troops.
Altho Government alleges sufficient food and clothing for all troops Northeast, neutral observers have noted acute shortage adequate winter foot and hand gear necessary this area. American Military Attaché informed ammunition shortage exists Mukden area.
If Communists start heavy offensive within next several months, Government will be hard pressed to withstand.
Conditions intramural China preclude reinforcement northeast [at] present. Only reinforcement possible now is movement within northeast from one area to another where possibly greater need exists. No reserves available. Situation northeast will be still further weakened by reported forthcoming removal troops to Paoting area in Hopei. All prospects Government counter-offensive this year (mytel 405, September 20, to Embassy70) now appear gone as Government admits 15 additional divisions required make such offensive.
Renewed efforts being made recruit local troops. Such efforts not successful past and no reason believe will be successful now. At best these troops will not be effective until next summer.
Strategically Communists better located now than at opening sixth offensive. Have not had withdraw from Mukden–Changchun, Changchun–Kirin or Mukden–Dairen rail lines. Their present positions constitute potential threat to Changchun, Kirin, Szepingkai, Anshan and Yingkow. Perhaps even more important is that Communists hold sufficient portion Mukden–Dairen line to enable them supply by rail at will large scale attack on either Anshan or Yingkow.
Communist losses recent campaign impossible assess but, notwithstanding Government alleges Communist casualties 90,000, likely casualties among Communists were less than among Government troops. Communist attacks consisted hit-and-run tactics which conserve manpower. Is known Communists had large units which were not in action during offensive.
Part 2. Economic: Most devastating effect Communist sixth offensive has been on northeast economy. Communists seized or destroyed large percentage crops. Now control 95% area northeast. Population this area greatly exceeds food supply therefrom. Rise in prices partly attributable unscrupulous officials and speculators but believed supply and demand more responsible.
[Page 380]Effective Communist destruction rail lines has precluded entry civilian supplies to northeast. Only high profit commodities such as tobacco being imported in quantity. Industry has been paralyzed by Communist disruption electric power lines from Fushun, Chinhsi and Hsingcheng, Manchuria. Destruction coal mines and lines communication has curtailed use thermal electric units Chinhsi and Changchun.
Poor planning and corruption has resulted acute coal shortage area where coal normally plentiful with resulting extreme discontent among common people.
Part 3. Political: Much of Government weakness in northeast issues from corrupt political system. Chen Cheng’s early promises political and economic reform and cleanup corruption northeast thus far empty. Lo Tso-ying, former Kwangtung Governor, known for unbridled corruption, has arrived Mukden assume duties as Vice Director PNEH. Troops at Fushun, only coal mine now accessible Mukden, exacting so much squeeze impossible small business men profitably move coal Mukden. Black market, particularly coal and foodstuffs, continues under aegis Government officials. Indifference and defeatism among people becoming more apparent. Believed majority people this area indifferent whether Communists or Government in control, but if Government’s maladministration continues during coming cold and hungry months passive attitude may well change into active desire for and assistance to Communist regime.
Sent Embassy, repeated Department as 367, Changchun 346, Peiping 79.