893.00/6–2147: Telegram
The Consul General at Changchun (Clubb) to the Secretary of State
[Received June 24—7:05 a.m.]
Unnumbered. Battle for Ssuping obviously reaching final stage with capture by Communists imminent. Relief patently too distant to reach in time defending force of 16,000 of 87th and temporary 20th Divisions. National column advancing from north probably New 38th Division withdrawn from Kirin just before cutting of rail line. If Ssuping falls, 38th Division will not only be unable to be of assistance but will itself be in danger annihilation unless (1) it retreats Changchun or (2) is joined by New First Army units now here.
Re Contel May 29, 4 p.m.,74 sent Nanking, repeated Mukden, Peiping. Significance battle Ssuping aptly indicated by Central News Agency (Contel 113, 19th75) which, however, fallacious second premise that Nationals would win. Capture Ssuping by Communists will give them following benefits: (1) Consolidation hold on broad corridor separating Nationals in Changchun and Kirin from Mukden area; (2) further shattering morale Government forces who will be shown once more they can expect little or no support when under attack and (3) gain of important stocks, munitions and foodstuffs now at Ssuping.
Effects such hypothetical event can be foreseen with reasonable degree of clarity. Garrison next in size and therefore probably next to be marked for annihilation is at Kirin where there now remains second-rate 182d and temporary 21st Divisions and some PPC troops. Kirin already cut off from Changchun on railway west of Kirin. Fall Ssuping will release ample Communist forces to pin down Changchun garrison and dispatch of relief force from Mukden if considered infeasible for Ssuping would hardly be attempted for Kirin. Changchun outer defenses strengthened considerably recently and town if far from impregnable fortress would nevertheless offer its garrison of about 5 divisions (still counting 38th) good position to meet attack. [Page 196] That attack would be improbable before reduction Kirin and even then Communists might choose weaken town by preliminary economic blockade. New First Army morale relatively good. Fall Ssuping will no doubt be severe shock even to that morale but believe that if Nationals remain inside Changchun defenses, this garrison could probably hold out 1 month under attack in absence of preliminary economic softening up. National attempt defend city without promise prompt arrival relief would in any event be hopeless last-ditch stand. If garrison, however, is evacuated in belated attempt reach Mukden overland after loss Ssuping, I venture opinion that most would be lost.
Significance current events central Manchuria for overall picture obvious: Complete destruction National position Manchuria threatened.