893.00/5–3047: Telegram
The Consul General at Mukden (Ward) to the Secretary of State
[Received May 31—5:35 a.m.]
78. Following summarizes situation reported in despatches awaiting air mail to Embassy as supplemented by more recent info:
In past 2 months morale Nationalist forces has deteriorated at rapid accelerating pace. Present serious state of their demoralization has been confirmed to us by many sources (including General Ma Chan-shan, various other Chinese contacts, UNRRA officials, American [Page 152] just arrived from Kirin, and indirectly NECC quarters) and has become matter of wide public knowledge and talk. It is reflected in jumpy nerves of military garrison, reported evacuation [word garbled], efforts to evade conscription, and reliable info from all sectors Nationalist territory (including points distant from current fighting) indicating that Nationalists in panicky state are feverishly building trench systems everywhere with only “Maginot” defense strategy in mind. There is good evidence that apathy, resentment and defeatism are spreading fast in Nationalist ranks causing surrenders and desertions. Main factors contributing to this are Communists’ ever mounting numerical superiority (resulting from greater use native recruits, aid from underground and Korean units), national soldiers’ discouragement over prospects getting reinforcements, better solidarity and fighting spirit of Communists, losses and exhaustion of Nationalists, their growing indignation over disparity between officers’ enrichment and soldiers’ low pay life, and their lack interest in fighting far from home among “alien” unfriendly populace (whereas Communists being largely natives are in position of fighting for native soil).
This does not mean Manchurian collapse is necessarily imminent. It does mean, however, that Nationalist morale has reached point where there is possibility of sudden debacle laying all Manchuria open to Communists whenever they choose to take it. In such event Communists might close in immediately for kill or prefer wait, while preparing ground psychologically and ruining Government’s morale which is not yet fully reflected in military picture.
Most serious factor in Nationalists’ situation here is deterioration political and economic position, till they were better prepared to run large cities and defend them against retaliatory Nationalist air attacks.
While danger would be temporarily lessened by Nationalist reinforcements and increased Nationalist air activity, it could be definitely averted, if at all at this late date, only by drastic measures of spectacular character clearly demonstrating to Nationalist troops and northeast people that Government has their interests generally at heart.
Sent Embassy as 131, repeated Department as 78, Changchun as 38, Tientsin as 36.