893.51/12–847: Telegram
The Acting Secretary of State to the Consul General at Shanghai (Davis)
2218. State and Agri agree following is maximum possible procurement schedule US cotton to meet Chinese requirements. Unit: 000 bales.
First and second quarters 339, but not more than 120 in second quarter; July–Aug. none, Sept. 50; fourth quarter 300. This being reviewed and subject [to] decrease as estimates US consumption in process revision. Above schedule states possibilities on basis first [Page 1240] step in procurement operations. Agri believes 2 months sufficient time to procure, ship and deliver, on assumptions: controlled large scale continuing procurement operation with full pipe lines; no interruptions loading and shipping; and no problems handling in China. Note no procurement July–Aug., just before new harvest, on account market impact.
These calculations originated in systematic interagency survey world requirements and availabilities for Marshall Plan and were reviewed in light recent developments re Chinese programs. Please comment and advise, explaining revised assumptions urtel 2793 Dec. 8 and more recently, preferably giving revised Table 1 your report 156, Sept. 1088 extended to July 1, 1949. Agri questions level of consumption, particularly consumption per spindle.
To insure comparability with above schedule and with balance of payments estimates, state whether your calculations based on port arrivals or distribution to mills and comment on our assumption 2 months lag. Your appraisal also requested of desirability in Chinese situation of handling any proposed cotton program through established commercial channels.
Give total import requirements all sources by quarters Jan. 1948–June 1949 inclusive showing separately non-US availabilities by source and specifying availability probably not requiring dollar payment. Give details reported China-Pakistan barter deal.
Repeat to Nanking.
- Report No. 156 not printed.↩