851G.00/3–2847: Telegram
The Vice Consul at Hanoi (O’Sullivan) to the Secretary of state 71
111. Re second paragraph Deptel 30, March 24,72 I believe Ramadier referred to December 19 letter which Ho Chi Mint addressed jointly to Blum and Auriol, as letter I authenticated was dated February 20 and addressed to President French Republic.
Copy of December 19 letter from Ho to Blum and Auriol will be found as December [document?] No. 76 attached to memoranda and supporting documents which I forwarded Saigon in January with suggestion it be transmitted Department. This memorandum with documents I received from Giam January 9 together with package which Giam said contained original memorandum (prepared by Vietnamese for presentation to Moutet on his visit here in early January; see mytel 13, January 11) and which he requested I transmit together with 2 letters to Sainteny. This I did without however opening package or letters and I have no knowledge of what they contained other than what Giam told me. Ramadier or Moutet later said in Assembly that signature on memorandum was typewritten.
As for what French expect to happen to permit resumption negotiations, it might be noted that French military position in Tonkin improving and that there are indications that Vietnam Government is encountering serious difficulties. Some of these indications are thin [Page 84] but steady trickle of people flowing back to area controlled by French, incomplete evacuation of populace in areas into which French have moved last 10 days, increasing difficulty of communication for Vietnam Government as French extend military control, apparent success of French in developing partisans among ethnic minorities to operate against Vietnamese, and growing munition shortage in Vietnam Government (there is for example report that recent executions by Vietnam Government done with hammers instead of firing squads).
French may consider Vietnam Government will weaken further in near future to such extent that Ho Chi Minh will drop “extremists” or that “moderates” will split from Tongbo group.