740.0011 PW (Peace)/8–1147
Memorandum by Mr. John P. Davies, Jr., of the Policy Planning Staff to the Director of the Staff (Kennan)
Subject: Draft Peace Treaty for Japan
It would seem that a peace settlement for Japan proposed by the American Government should further American aims in Japan and the Pacific area. The central American objective in this respect is taken to be a stable Japan, integrated into the Pacific economy, [Page 486] friendly to the U.S. and, in case of need, a ready and dependable Ally of the U.S.
Rather than assuring a furtherance of our central objective, the Draft Treaty of Peace for Japan appears to be preoccupied with drastic disarmament and democratization under continuing international supervision, including the U.S.S.R. But demilitarization is no longer a serious problem in the case of Japan. Even if it so desired, Japan could not in the foreseeable future resurrect itself as a first-class military power. It can only gravitate into the orbit of one or the other of the super powers. As for democratization, it is questionable whether the presence of the U.S.S.R. on an international supervisory body would contribute to democratic advances. It is likely that the U.S.S.R. in this position would be a disruptive influence in Japan, placing the onus for continued supervision on the U.S. and conspiring to bring about sovietized totalitarianism. The ease with which a coup could be engineered under the proposed treaty is manifest on cursory examination of Chapter V. Occupation forces having been withdrawn, the Japanese Government would have at its disposal for the maintenance of security and order only a civil police force equipped with small arms.
There are other secondary questions and objections which need not be brought up here.
It is recommended that the Draft Treaty be discussed in conference with FE and that the discussion be on the basic issues of harmonizing the treaty with fundamental American objectives in Japan and the Pacific.