851G.01/10–1847: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State 12
2096. In conversation with Embassy officer on subject of Indochina, Vice FonMin George Yeh and Director of European Dept FonOff expressed following views:
It is difficult to foresee a settlement of Indochina question under current French policy, which is making position of other powers, particularly China and US, extremely difficult. It is unlikely that a govt can successfully be formed without participation of Ho Chi Minh, as Ho and his group are the only ones having a genuinely popular following. Attempts to alienate Ho’s adherents under present circumstances unlikely of success. Persistence of French in present [Page 144] military course carries danger of forcing entire freedom movement into hands of extreme, Communist elements.
Ho is regarded as Communist but many Vietminh leaders are not. Vice Minister is impressed with Ho’s personality and commented that Ho was an abler individual for example than Sjahrir13 of Indonesian Govt, both men being personally known to him. The question of possible danger to China from a Communist-influenced regime adjacent to her southern border did not appear to be of critical importance.
The National Union Front does not have a solid popular base. It consists in the main of a group of prominent figures and if these leaders were removed from the picture (the recent assassinations in Saigon and Hanoi were recalled14) the movement would probably have little force left. As regards Bao Dai, “the Chinese people” would not regard favorably the reestablishment of a monarchy in Indochina. Bao Dai has not recently been in Nanking (reDeptel 1205, September 2915) and FonOff officials made oblique reference to a “French story” to that effect.
Embassy comment: While no direct statement was vouchsafed by FonOff officials as to Chinese attitude toward National Union or Nguyen Hai Than,16 foregoing would appear to indicate FonOff does not contemplate support of Bao Dai who would seem to be an indispensable element in present French plans and that a dubious view, at best, is taken of National Union movement. As Dept is aware, there are diverse Chinese elements interested in the Indochina situation and views given above do not purport to represent crystallized Chinese attitude. No allusion was made during interview to possible mediation by third power or powers.
- Repeated to Paris as telegram 4003, October 22, noon.↩
- Sutan Sjahrir, Indonesian Prime Minister, November 14, 1945–June 27, 1947.↩
- Nguyen Van Sam, leader of the National Union Front Party, and Dr. Truong Dinh Tri, president of the Hanoi Comité Provisoire de Gestion Administrative et d’Action Sociale, were both assassinated on October 10.↩
- Not printed.↩
- Formerly leader of the Vietnam Revolutionary League (Viet Nam Cach Menh Dong Minh Hoi).↩