851G.00/9–1547: Telegram
The Consul at Saigon (Reed) to the Secretary of State
299. Continued study Bollaert’s speech and talks with many natives (both pro-Ho and pro-Bao Dai), French and others lead to following conclusions:
French now offer less than March 6 agreement, deliberately so in order to make offer unacceptable, so army can put its plan into operation to try eliminate Ho. French putting pressure on Bao Dai to accept negotiate with them but although they probably prepared enlarge terms of offer (member High Commissariat’s [admits?] poor offer as point of departure for negotiations) there is no question of independence. Accordingly French continuing divide and rule policy and show little inclination go much beyond pre-war status.
On other hand, natives are not united and even in National Front ranks there is dissension. Also so far Ho has adopted negative attitude to National Front invitation form new combined government, Ho claiming he represents people and National Front must come to him. Until natives can agree, French have some justification at this stage limiting offer to internal autonomy with supervision to see one party or another does not gain control by totalitarian methods. Moreover number of native personalities admit French offer not too bad if [Page 138] could be sure French would be honest in carrying out terms of offer and could be counted on to progressively accord further attributes independence. This lack of confidence in French is keynote native attitude.
Unless French prepared act honestly, sincerely, to enlarge terms of offer to place natives on equality with French in internal matters, and unless natives can sink differences and can insure internal liberty will not be signal for civil war, it does not appear there can be any immediate acceptable solution FIC situation derived through direct French-Annamite efforts. If present trouble conditions drag on, perhaps intervention (my despatch 267, July 11 [1])7 may be desirable and necessary, as it is inadmissible for American prestige in this part Asia let French restore virtually pre-war status quo by arms and equally bad let natives run wild, which would be signal for civil conflict and possible Communist or Chinese intervention of a kind [sic].
Please pass Paris.
- Not printed.↩