Office of the Historian

Department of State Atomic Energy Files

Memorandum by Dr. Richard C. Tolman to Mr. John M. Hancock 85

confidential
[New York,] October 4, 1946.

Subject: Immediate cessation of bomb manufacture

1.
In accordance with your request I am transmitting herewith an analysis of certain points with reference to the question of immediate cessation of bomb manufacture.
2.
The principal argument given for the immediate cessation of bomb manufacture by the United States is that such action would demonstrate the sincerity of our desire to outlaw the use of this weapon, and would thus contribute to a better atmosphere and to better prospects of success for the UNAEC negotiations.
3.
Such an action would certainly be regarded by some persons and for some length of time as a demonstration of sincerity, but it is not clear that it would contribute either to the success of the negotiations or to the security of the world.
4.
Doubts as to whether we had really ceased bomb manufacture would soon be spread. On the one hand this would impair confidence in our sincerity. On the other hand it would emphasize the need for inspection which we believe to be an essential part of international control.
5.
Rumors would be circulated that we already had a sufficient stock pile of bombs so that the cessation of bomb manufacture was meaningless.
6.
Demands might soon be made for destruction of existing bombs, disposition of existing fissionable material, and discontinuance of the manufacture of further fissionable material. This last would in time have a bad effect on development for peaceful uses.
7.
Resumption of bomb manufacture after a specified time, or on approaching breakdown of negotiations would have a serious adverse effect on international relations.
8.
Many nations would lose the sense of security that they now derive from the U. S. possession of the bomb and would cease to support U. S. positions.
9.
U. S. bargaining position for a system of international control would probably be weakened.
10.
Timing of cessation of bomb manufacture and disposition of existing bombs are appropriate items for inclusion in treaty.
11.
U. S. security would be adversely affected at a time when demobilization of armed forces has already been great.
Richard C. Tolman
  1. Members of the United States Delegation to the Atomic Energy Commission.↩