893.00/12–1645: Telegram
The Chargé in China (Robertson) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 16—9:06 a.m.]
2169. Weekly report of Military Attaché is summarized below:
Chou En-lai’s failure to return to Chungking this week resulted in still another postponement in convening of Political Consultative Council. Central Government announces that Sino-Russian agreement has set stage for bloodless occupation of Manchuria, but field observers provide much evidence that Communists are determined to pursue their northeastern strategy to limit of their military effectiveness. Although official releases of both Communists and Central Government are cautiously optimistic regarding eventual political solution by both sides [they?] continue to operate with apparent cynical disregard of hope for unity through negotiation.
In Manchuria battle for Mukden appears doubtful. There are no indications that serious frontal resistance will be offered by relatively weak Communist forces in that area to Central Government column reported in vicinity of Mukden awaiting evacuation of both Communist and Soviet troops before taking over. General Tu Li-ming is said to be attempting to persuade former independent guerrilla fighters at present his principal opposition in this area, to abandon Communists in favor of Central Government. In spite of their Communist leanings, there is evidence that Communists in central Manchuria, largely provincial troops, are poorly organized and indoctrinated and that spirit of opportunism makes wholesale defection possible. Communists thus far have succeeded in organizing only minor part of Manchurian puppets, but any considerable delay in organizing them under Central Government might force large percentage into Communist ranks and augment more than 100,000 estimated to be mobilized in northeastern provinces against Central Government. Nowithstanding withdrawal of large measure of Soviet backing, Communists seem confident of holding their own, believing that Central Government will be handicapped by low morale of troops, unfamiliarity with country, severity of Manchurian climate, and vulnerability of extended communication lines to guerrilla action. General Tu has announced he will occupy Yingkou, now held by 20,000 Communist troops who are reported being reinforced by Eighth Route Army regulars from northern Shantung. Occupation of Yingkou by Central Government would probably give rise to further requests for use of U. S. vessels. A decision was made, it is reported, at a recent Communist Party conference to oppose any further landings in northeast by American ships of National troops.
[Page 701]In other parts of China there were no indications that Communists might be revising their plan because of strategic setbacks as has apparently happened in Manchuria. They continue to harass communication lines, especially in southern Shantung where they are grouping for new attack on Lincheng on Tsinpu railway. Control of the Peiping–Hankow railway also remains one of their most vigorously pursued objectives. In southern Shansi, Central Government reports Communists have massed sizable force to attack railroad between Wenhsi and Houma, south of Taiyuan on Tungpu line. This offensive implies new aspirations toward Taiyuan from south since drive from north has been halted by Fu Tso-yi’s resistance at Kueisui and Paotou. Although Central Government has been silent this week regarding action in latter places, there is no reason to suppose tide has turned against 12th War Zone Forces.
Although Communist interference with lines of communication has impeded movement of Central Government Forces, Communists are gradually being faced with more serious threats to their domination as National Force builds up in north. In all, Government’s 3d and 16th Armies menace Kalgan and 92d Army moving north from Peiping is reported engaging Communist defenders of gateways to Jehol and Chahar Provinces, along Great Wall. Eighth Army, landed at Tsing-tao last month is driving west toward Tsinan and north toward ports held by Communists on north coast of Shantung. Twelfth Army has been transferred from Kiangsu to oppose Communists in central Shantung. Throughout Shantung, Communists are putting up stiff resistance, particularly to Eighth Army.
Arrival of Central Government 54th Army is reported to have relieved tension in Canton, where possible Communist coup had been rumored. Fifty-fourth Army replaces crack New First Army which is understood to be destined for Manchuria via Hong Kong, movement which Communists have been seeking to obstruct. Middle Yangtze River area moved into prominence this week with reports of renewed attack against Hsiangyang in northern Hupei and Central Government accounts of major Communist offensive in region of Tuangpei River north of Hankow, into which area 7th Division of new Fourth Army has recently moved.